IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hin/jnlmpe/7980111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Health Transition Probability and Long-Term Care Cost Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaodong Cui
  • Xuexiang Duan
  • Ching-Ter Chang
  • Shuhua Jiang
  • Xunjie Gou

Abstract

The cost of long-term care (LTC) is one of the huge financial risks faced by the elderly and also is a significant challenge to the social security system. This article establishes a piecewise constant Markov model to estimate the dynamic health transition probability and based on actuarial theory to calculate the long-term care cost, in contrast to the static or nontransferable state hypotheses in traditional models. Using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, this article found that the average cost of LTC for the elderly varies greatly due to gender and health conditions, the cost for women may increase by up to 75% compared to that for men, and the cost for unhealthy elderly may more than double compared to that for healthy elderly. Furthermore, if LTC is included in the medical insurance system, in theory, women's average pay price will be more than twice that of men.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaodong Cui & Xuexiang Duan & Ching-Ter Chang & Shuhua Jiang & Xunjie Gou, 2022. "Health Transition Probability and Long-Term Care Cost Estimation," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-11, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:7980111
    DOI: 10.1155/2022/7980111
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/mpe/2022/7980111.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/mpe/2022/7980111.xml
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2022/7980111?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ventura-Marco, Manuel & Vidal-Meliá, Carlos & Pérez-Salamero González, Juan Manuel, 2023. "Joint life care annuities to help retired couples to finance the cost of long-term care," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 122-139.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:7980111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mohamed Abdelhakeem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hindawi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.