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Using a Novel Grey System Model to Forecast Natural Gas Consumption in China

Author

Listed:
  • Lifeng Wu
  • Sifeng Liu
  • Haijun Chen
  • Na Zhang

Abstract

Accurate prediction of the future energy needs is crucial for energy management. This work presents a novel grey forecasting model that integrates the principle of new information priority into accumulated generation. This grey model can better reflect the priority of the new information theoretically. The results of two practical examples demonstrate that this grey model provides very remarkable short-term predication performance compared with traditional grey forecasting model for limited data set forecasting. It is applied to Chinese gas consumption forecasting to show its superiority and applicability.

Suggested Citation

  • Lifeng Wu & Sifeng Liu & Haijun Chen & Na Zhang, 2015. "Using a Novel Grey System Model to Forecast Natural Gas Consumption in China," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-7, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:686501
    DOI: 10.1155/2015/686501
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Xin & Deng, Yanqiao & Ma, Minda, 2024. "A novel kernel ridge grey system model with generalized Morlet wavelet and its application in forecasting natural gas production and consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    2. Luo, Xilin & Duan, Huiming & Xu, Kai, 2021. "A novel grey model based on traditional Richards model and its application in COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Liu, Chong & Wu, Wen-Ze & Xie, Wanli & Zhang, Jun, 2020. "Application of a novel fractional grey prediction model with time power term to predict the electricity consumption of India and China," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Li, Fengyun & Zheng, Haofeng & Li, Xingmei & Yang, Fei, 2021. "Day-ahead city natural gas load forecasting based on decomposition-fusion technique and diversified ensemble learning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    5. Xie, Minghua & Yi, Xiangyu & Liu, Kui & Sun, Chuanwang & Kong, Qingbao, 2023. "How much natural gas does China need: An empirical study from the perspective of energy transition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    6. Duan, Huiming & Pang, Xinyu, 2021. "A multivariate grey prediction model based on energy logistic equation and its application in energy prediction in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

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