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A Comparative Study of Activation Functions of NAR and NARX Neural Network for Long-Term Wind Speed Forecasting in Malaysia

Author

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  • Rasel Sarkar
  • Sabariah Julai
  • Sazzad Hossain
  • Wen Tong Chong
  • Mahmudur Rahman

Abstract

Since wind power is directly influenced by wind speed, long-term wind speed forecasting (WSF) plays an important role for wind farm installation. WSF is essential for controlling, energy management and scheduled wind power generation in wind farm. The proposed investigation in this paper provides 30-days-ahead WSF. Nonlinear Autoregressive (NAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network (NN) with different network settings have been used to facilitate the wind power generation. The essence of this study is that it compares the effect of activation functions (namely, tansig and logsig) in the performance of time series forecasting since activation function is the core element of any artificial neural network model. A set of wind speed data was collected from different meteorological stations in Malaysia, situated in Kuala Lumpur, Kuantan, and Melaka. The proposed activation functions tansig of NARNN and NARXNN resulted in promising outcomes in terms of very small error between actual and predicted wind speed as well as the comparison for the logsig transfer function results.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasel Sarkar & Sabariah Julai & Sazzad Hossain & Wen Tong Chong & Mahmudur Rahman, 2019. "A Comparative Study of Activation Functions of NAR and NARX Neural Network for Long-Term Wind Speed Forecasting in Malaysia," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:6403081
    DOI: 10.1155/2019/6403081
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    Cited by:

    1. Karodine Chreng & Han Soo Lee & Soklin Tuy, 2022. "A Hybrid Model for Electricity Demand Forecast Using Improved Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Recurrent Neural Networks with ERA5 Climate Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Dong, Yunxuan & Wang, Jing & Xiao, Ling & Fu, Tonglin, 2021. "Short-term wind speed time series forecasting based on a hybrid method with multiple objective optimization for non-convex target," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    3. Hernandez-Matheus, Alejandro & Löschenbrand, Markus & Berg, Kjersti & Fuchs, Ida & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Sumper, Andreas, 2022. "A systematic review of machine learning techniques related to local energy communities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Elshafei, Basem & Peña, Alfredo & Popov, Atanas & Giddings, Donald & Ren, Jie & Xu, Dong & Mao, Xuerui, 2023. "Offshore wind resource assessment based on scarce spatio-temporal measurements using matrix factorization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1215-1225.

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