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Research on Evaluation Method Based on Modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network

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  • Neng-pu Yang
  • Mei Han
  • Shi-yong Chen
  • Xiao-hua Liu
  • Liu-jiang Kang

Abstract

This work presents a novel evaluation method, which can be applied in the field of risk assessment, project management, cause analysis, and so forth. Two core technologies are used in the method, namely, modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network. Based on the modified Buckley Decision Making, the fuzzy probabilities of element factors are calibrated. By the forward and backward calculation of Bayesian Network, the structure importance, probability importance, and criticality importance of each factor are calculated and discussed. A numerical example of risk evaluation for dangerous goods transport process is given to verify the method. The results indicate that the method can efficiently identify the weakest element factor. In addition, the method can improve the reliability and objectivity for evaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Neng-pu Yang & Mei Han & Shi-yong Chen & Xiao-hua Liu & Liu-jiang Kang, 2015. "Research on Evaluation Method Based on Modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-7, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:489207
    DOI: 10.1155/2015/489207
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