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Dynamic Spreading Model of Passenger Group Panic considering Official Guidance Information in Subway Emergencies

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  • Jiayang Li
  • Jiafu Tang
  • Dan Wang

Abstract

Safety concerns are increasing as rail transportation develops at a fast pace. When emergencies erupt in the course of transportation, panic will spread among passengers. Subway operators should understand how the emotions of passengers spread and how the guidance instructions work, in order to effectively deter the transmission of panic. Based on the models of system dynamics, transmission dynamics, and contagious disease, the essay constructs a dynamic transmission model for passenger panic inside the carriage, incorporating the official guidance instructions. Then, the essay utilizes Routh–Hurwitz criteria and analyzes the stability equilibrium of the dynamic differential equation. Mathematical analysis and simulation tests have verified the validity of the model and stability conditions. Finally, it is proved in the essay by mathematical analysis and simulation tests that official guidance instructions can effectively control the spread of panic and quickly stabilize the system. Thus, the essay helps subway operators to come up with clear official guidance, so as to find quick solutions and prevent escalation of panic due to lack of trust.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiayang Li & Jiafu Tang & Dan Wang, 2019. "Dynamic Spreading Model of Passenger Group Panic considering Official Guidance Information in Subway Emergencies," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-17, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:4691641
    DOI: 10.1155/2019/4691641
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Yingying & Huo, Liang’an & Zhao, Laijun, 2020. "Rumor spreading in complex networks under stochastic node activity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 559(C).
    2. Kogan, Konstantin & Herbon, Avi, 2022. "Retailing under panic buying and consumer stockpiling: Can governmental intervention make a difference?," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).

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