Risk Influencing Factor Analysis of Urban Express Logistics for Public Safety: A Chinese Perspective

Due to the uncertainty and complexity of multilinks and multifactors in urban express logistics system, it is very difficult to analyze the risk factors and the correlation among them for urban public security. In this paper, a method combining domain knowledge and data learning is proposed to construct Bayesian network, which can effectively deal with this problem. Based on the literature review and the investigation of transportation companies, this paper summarizes the risk factors to public safety caused by pick up, warehouse storage, transport, and the end distribution in the process of urban express logistics, which are divided into 5 dimensions: management, weather, human, transportation tools and facilities, and goods, including 11 risk factors. In this paper, Interpretative Structural Model is used to construct the initial hierarchical model to describe the complex relationship between factors, and then causal mapping method is used to improve the initial model to transform the structure into the final Bayesian network model. Finally, the sensitivity of one node to other nodes is analyzed based on the incident data. The results show that Bayesian network is effective in improving urban express logistics operation ability and avoiding public safety risks and has a strong generalization ability, which is simple and easy in practical application.