Does Economic Growth Driving Force Convert? Evidence from China

The conversion from conventional to new driving forces and their time-varying characteristics are of great importance to China’s economic transformation. In this paper, we attempt to investigate the economic growth driving force conversion in China and the time-varying characteristics of driving forces by constructing a time-varying coefficient panel data model during the period of 1998–2015. The empirical results indicate that China’s economy has undergone driving force conversion. Specifically, China’s economic growth driving forces have been transformed from traditional ones (human capital and gross fixed capital formation) to new ones (innovation capacity and structural transformation). Furthermore, we find that the characteristics of the driving forces are time-varying and heterogeneous. Innovation capacity and structural transformation have a more crucial impact on economic growth. Finally, based on the conclusions of the quantitative analysis, some important policy implications can be pursued to foster economic growth. Chinese government ought to enact various policies that are conducive to enhancing innovation capacity and accelerating structural transformation.