Traffic Conflict Analysis of Motor Vehicles and Nonmotor Vehicles Based on Improved Cellular Automata

In recent years, with the rapid development of China’s logistics industry and urban service industry, electric bicycles have gradually become an important means of transportation in cities due to their flexibility, green technology, and low operating costs. Because electric bicycles travel though motor vehicle lanes and nonmotor vehicle lanes, the conflict between motor and nonmotor vehicles has become increasingly prominent, and the safety situation is not optimistic. However, most theories and models of mixed traffic flow are based on motor vehicles and bicycles and few involve electric bicycles. To explore the traffic safety situation in an urban mixed traffic environment, this paper first uses cellular automata (CA) to establish a three-strand mixed traffic flow model of motor vehicles, electric bicycles, and bicycles and verifies the reliability of the model by using a MATLAB simulation based on the actual survey data. Then, using the technology of traffic conflicts and the conflict rate as the index to evaluate the traffic safety situation, the change in the conflict rate with different road occupancies and different proportional coefficients of motor vehicles is studied. In the end, the conflict rate is compared between the mixed traffic flow and the setting of a physical isolation divider, which provides some suggestions on when to set a physical isolation divider to separate motor vehicles from nonmotor vehicles. The results show that in a mixed traffic environment, the conflict rate first increases and then decreases with increasing road occupancy and reaches a peak when the road occupancy is 0.6. In addition, in mixed traffic environments, the conflict rate increases with an increasing proportional coefficient of the motor vehicle. When the road occupancy rate is within the range of [0.6, 0.9] or when the proportional coefficient of motor vehicle is between [0.8, 0.9], a physical isolation divider can be set to separate motor vehicles and nonmotor vehicles from the space to improve traffic safety.