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Forest Fire Risk Assessment: An Illustrative Example from Ontario, Canada

Author

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  • W. John Braun
  • Bruce L. Jones
  • Jonathan S. W. Lee
  • Douglas G. Woolford
  • B. Mike Wotton

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of ignition and burn risk due to wildfire in a region of Ontario, Canada using a methodology which is applicable to the entire boreal forest region. A generalized additive model was employed to obtain ignition risk probabilities and a burn probability map using only historic ignition and fire area data. Constructing fire shapes according to an accurate physical model for fire spread, using a fuel map and realistic weather scenarios is possible with the Prometheus fire growth simulation model. Thus, we applied the Burn-P3 implementation of Prometheus to construct a more accurate burn probability map. The fuel map for the study region was verified and corrected. Burn-P3 simulations were run under the settings (related to weather) recommended in the software documentation and were found to be fairly robust to errors in the fuel map, but simulated fire sizes were substantially larger than those observed in the historic record. By adjusting the input parameters to reflect suppression effects, we obtained a model which gives more appropriate fire sizes. The resulting burn probability map suggests that risk of fire in the study area is much lower than what is predicted by Burn-P3 under its recommended settings.

Suggested Citation

  • W. John Braun & Bruce L. Jones & Jonathan S. W. Lee & Douglas G. Woolford & B. Mike Wotton, 2010. "Forest Fire Risk Assessment: An Illustrative Example from Ontario, Canada," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2010, pages 1-26, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnljps:823018
    DOI: 10.1155/2010/823018
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan A. Ager & Michelle Buonopane & Allison Reger & Mark A. Finney, 2013. "Wildfire Exposure Analysis on the National Forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1000-1020, June.
    2. Roghayeh Jahdi & Michele Salis & Fermin J. Alcasena & Mahdi Arabi & Bachisio Arca & Pierpaolo Duce, 2020. "Evaluating landscape-scale wildfire exposure in northwestern Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(3), pages 911-932, April.

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