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Mathematical Model to Estimate and Predict the COVID-19 Infections in Morocco: Optimal Control Strategy

Author

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  • Omar Zakary
  • Sara Bidah
  • Mostafa Rachik
  • Hanane Ferjouchia

Abstract

In this paper, we aim to estimate and predict the situation of the new coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) in countries under quarantine measures. First, we present a new discrete-time mathematical model describing the evolution of the COVID-19 in a population under quarantine. We are motivated by the growing numbers of infections and deaths in countries under quarantine to investigate potential causes. We consider two new classes of people, those who respect the quarantine and stay at home, and those who do not respect the quarantine and leave their homes for one or another reason. Second, we use real published data to estimate the parameters of the model, and then, we estimate these populations in Morocco. We investigate the impact of people who underestimate the quarantine by considering an optimal control strategy to reduce this category and then reducing the number of the population at risk in Morocco. We provide several simulations to support our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Omar Zakary & Sara Bidah & Mostafa Rachik & Hanane Ferjouchia, 2020. "Mathematical Model to Estimate and Predict the COVID-19 Infections in Morocco: Optimal Control Strategy," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-13, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnljam:9813926
    DOI: 10.1155/2020/9813926
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Mostak & Masud, Md. Abdullah Bin & Sarker, Md. Manirul Alam, 2023. "Bifurcation analysis and optimal control of discrete SIR model for COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    2. Mugnaine, Michele & Gabrick, Enrique C. & Protachevicz, Paulo R. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Almeida, Alexandre C.L. & Batista, Antonio M. & Caldas, Iberê L. & Szezech Jr, José D. & V, 2022. "Control attenuation and temporary immunity in a cellular automata SEIR epidemic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

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