IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hin/jnljam/8465747.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Dysentery Diarrhea Epidemic Model

Author

Listed:
  • Hailay Weldegiorgis Berhe
  • Oluwole Daniel Makinde
  • David Mwangi Theuri

Abstract

In this paper, dysentery diarrhea deterministic compartmental model is proposed. The local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained using the stability theory of differential equations. Numerical simulation of the system shows that the backward bifurcation of the endemic equilibrium exists for . The system is formulated as a standard nonlinear least squares problem to estimate the parameters. The estimated reproduction number, based on the dysentery diarrhea disease data for Ethiopia in 2017, is . This suggests that elimination of the dysentery disease from Ethiopia is not practical. A graphical method is used to validate the model. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the importance of model parameters in the disease dynamics. It is found out that the reproduction number is the most sensitive to the effective transmission rate of dysentery diarrhea ( ). It is also demonstrated that control of the effective transmission rate is essential to stop the spreading of the disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Hailay Weldegiorgis Berhe & Oluwole Daniel Makinde & David Mwangi Theuri, 2019. "Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Dysentery Diarrhea Epidemic Model," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-13, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnljam:8465747
    DOI: 10.1155/2019/8465747
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/JAM/2019/8465747.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/JAM/2019/8465747.xml
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2019/8465747?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Berhe, Hailay Weldegiorgis & Qureshi, Sania & Shaikh, Asif Ali, 2020. "Deterministic modeling of dysentery diarrhea epidemic under fractional Caputo differential operator via real statistical analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Munir, Mohammad & Kausar, Nasreen & Shakil, Mohammad, 2021. "Parameter identification for multiperiodic functions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    3. Yudie Hu & Hongyan Wang & Shaoping Jiang, 2024. "Analysis and Optimal Control of a Two-Strain SEIR Epidemic Model with Saturated Treatment Rate," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Berhe, Hailay Weldegiorgis, 2020. "Optimal Control Strategies and Cost-effectiveness Analysis Applied to Real Data of Cholera Outbreak in Ethiopia’s Oromia Region," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Chih-Wen Chang & Zohaib Ali Qureshi & Sania Qureshi & Asif Ali Shaikh & Muhammad Yaqoob Shahani, 2024. "Real-Data-Based Study on Divorce Dynamics and Elimination Strategies Using Nonlinear Differential Equations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-23, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hin:jnljam:8465747. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mohamed Abdelhakeem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hindawi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.