Formulated Mathematical Model for Delayed Particle Flow in Cascaded Subsurface Water Reservoirs with Validation on River Flow

Migration of pollutant particles into subsurface water reservoirs through point sources is largely involved mixing processes within the system of water flow. Possible potential sources of pollution to these point sources include municipal wastes, septic loads, landfills, uncontrolled hazardous wastes, and sewage storage tanks. The mixing processes of pollutant significantly alter their predictive rate of flow in the water reservoirs, and therefore the time inherent in mixing processes need to be accounted for. In this study, pollution of subsurface water reservoirs mainly rivers and streams through contaminated water point sources (CWPS) was studied through a conceptual perspective of mixing problem processes in water tanks. The objective was to formulate a discrete time delay mathematical model which describes the dynamics of water reservoir pollution that involve single species contaminants such as nitrates, phosphorous, and detergents injecting from a point source. The concentration xt of pollutants was expressed as a function of the inflow and outflow rates using the principle for the conservation of mass. The major assumption made in modeling of mixing problems using tanks is that mixing is instantaneous. Practical realities dictate that mixing cannot occur instantaneously throughout the tank. So as to accommodate these realities, the study refined the systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) generated from principles of mixing problems in cascading tanks, into a system of delayed differential equations (DDEs) so that the concentration of pollutant leaving the reservoir at time t would be equal to the average concentration at some earlier instant, t−τ for the delay τ>0. The formulated model is a mathematical discrete time delay model which can be used to describe the dynamics of subsurface water reservoir pollution through a point source. The model was simulated on municipal River Nyakomisaro in Kisii County, Kenya. Physical and kinematic parameters of the river (cross-sectional lengths, depths, flow velocities) at three river sectional reservoirs were measured and the obtained parameter values were then used to evaluate coefficients of the formulated model equation. The system of DDEs from this simulation was solved numerically on MATLAB using dde23 software. From the graphical views generated for concentration of pollutant xt versus time t, it was established that the developed DDEs cover longer time series solutions (characteristic curves) than that from the corresponding ODEs in the same reservoir indicating that time necessary for particle flow through water reservoirs is underestimated if ODEs are used to describe particle flow. Also, the graphical views indicated similar tendencies (characteristics) in particle flow with time elapse even though initial values of concentration xt were different for every potentially recognized single species pollutant considered in each river reservoir. Hence, longer values of time t will imply more pollution in the water reservoir and vice versa. By introducing time delays due to constituent mixing processes in water quality simulation models that make use of advection-diffusion equation such as Qual2kw, the findings of this study can help for better understanding of the contaminant’s accumulation levels and their rate of transport in water resource. These will assist, for example, water-quality protection agencies such as Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), World Health Organization (WHO), and National Environmental Management Authority (NEMA) for the need to generate efficient and effective remedial strategies to control or mitigate hazardous or risks arising from water pollution.