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Analysis of a Heroin Epidemic Model with Saturated Treatment Function

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  • Isaac Mwangi Wangari
  • Lewi Stone

Abstract

A mathematical model is developed that examines how heroin addiction spreads in society. The model is formulated to take into account the treatment of heroin users by incorporating a realistic functional form that “saturates” representing the limited availability of treatment. Bifurcation analysis reveals that the model has an intrinsic backward bifurcation whenever the saturation parameter is larger than a fixed threshold. We are particularly interested in studying the model’s global stability. In the absence of backward bifurcations, Lyapunov functions can often be found and used to prove global stability. However, in the presence of backward bifurcations, such Lyapunov functions may not exist or may be difficult to construct. We make use of the geometric approach to global stability to derive a condition that ensures that the system is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations are also presented to give a more complete representation of the model dynamics. Sensitivity analysis performed by Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) suggests that the effective contact rate in the population, the relapse rate of heroin users undergoing treatment, and the extent of saturation of heroin users are mechanisms fuelling heroin epidemic proliferation.

Suggested Citation

  • Isaac Mwangi Wangari & Lewi Stone, 2017. "Analysis of a Heroin Epidemic Model with Saturated Treatment Function," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-21, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnljam:1953036
    DOI: 10.1155/2017/1953036
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    Cited by:

    1. Bourafa, S. & Abdelouahab, M-S. & Moussaoui, A., 2020. "On some extended Routh–Hurwitz conditions for fractional-order autonomous systems of order α ∈ (0, 2) and their applications to some population dynamic models," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Li, Xuhui & Agarwal, Ravi P. & Gómez-Aguilar, J.F. & Badshah, Qaisar & Rahman, Ghaus ur, 2022. "Threshold dynamics: Formulation, stability & sensitivity analysis of co-abuse model of heroin and smoking," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Zizhen Zhang & Fangfang Yang & Wanjun Xia, 2019. "Hopf Bifurcation Analysis of a Synthetic Drug Transmission Model with Time Delays," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-17, November.
    4. Wang, Jinliang & Wang, Jing & Kuniya, Toshikazu, 2019. "Analysis of an age-structured multi-group heroin epidemic model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 347(C), pages 78-100.

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