IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hin/jnljam/1582159.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Contagious Criminal Career Models Showing Backward Bifurcations: Implications for Crime Control Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia Martorano Raimundo
  • Hyun Mo Yang
  • Eduardo Massad

Abstract

We provide a theoretical framework to study how criminal behaviors can be treated as an infectious phenomenon. There are two infectious diseases like models that mimic the role of convicted criminals in contaminating individuals not yet engaged in the criminal career. Equilibrium analyses of each model are studied in detail. The models proposed in this work include the social, economic, personal, and pressure from peers aspects that can, theoretically, determine the probability with which a susceptible individual with criminal propensity engages in a criminal career. These crime-inducing parameters are treated mathematically and their inclusion in the model aims to help policy-makers design crime control strategies. We propose, to the best of our knowledge by the first time in quantitative criminology, the existence of thresholds for the stability of crime-endemic equilibrium which are the equivalent to the “basic reproduction number” widely used in the mathematical epidemiology literature. Both models presented the phenomena of backward bifurcation and breaking-point when the contact rates are chosen as bifurcation parameters. The finding of backward bifurcation in both models implies that there is an endemic equilibrium of criminality even when the threshold parameter for contagion is below unit, which, in turn, implies that control strategies are more difficult to achieve considerable impact on crime control.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Martorano Raimundo & Hyun Mo Yang & Eduardo Massad, 2018. "Contagious Criminal Career Models Showing Backward Bifurcations: Implications for Crime Control Policies," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-16, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnljam:1582159
    DOI: 10.1155/2018/1582159
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/JAM/2018/1582159.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/JAM/2018/1582159.xml
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2018/1582159?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sooknanan, Joanna & Seemungal, Terence A.R., 2023. "Criminals and their models - a review of epidemiological models describing criminal behaviour," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).
    2. Ohene Opoku, Nicholas Kwasi-Do & Bader, Georg & Fiatsonu, Edem, 2021. "Controlling crime with its associated cost during festive periods using mathematical techniques," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Raimundo, Silvia Martorano & Yang, Hyun Mo & Rubio, Felipe Alves & Greenhalgh, David & Massad, Eduardo, 2023. "Modeling criminal careers of different levels of offence," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 453(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hin:jnljam:1582159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mohamed Abdelhakeem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hindawi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.