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Mathematical Model of Schistosomiasis under Flood in Anhui Province

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  • Longxing Qi
  • Jing-an Cui
  • Tingting Huang
  • Fengli Ye
  • Longzhi Jiang

Abstract

Based on the real observation data in Tongcheng city, this paper established a mathematical model of schistosomiasis transmission under flood in Anhui province. The delay of schistosomiasis outbreak under flood was considered. Analysis of this model shows that the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than one. The stability of the unique endemic equilibrium may be changed under some conditions even if the basic reproduction number is larger than one. The impact of flood on the stability of the endemic equilibrium is studied and the results imply that flood can destabilize the system and periodic solutions can arise by Hopf bifurcation. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to support these mathematical results and the results are in accord with the observation data from Tongcheng Schistosomiasis Control Station.

Suggested Citation

  • Longxing Qi & Jing-an Cui & Tingting Huang & Fengli Ye & Longzhi Jiang, 2014. "Mathematical Model of Schistosomiasis under Flood in Anhui Province," Abstract and Applied Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-7, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnlaaa:972189
    DOI: 10.1155/2014/972189
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    Cited by:

    1. Liqian Sun & Yue Chen & Henry Lynn & Qizhi Wang & Shiqing Zhang & Rui Li & Congcong Xia & Qingwu Jiang & Yi Hu & Fenghua Gao & Zhijie Zhang, 2015. "Identifying Spatial Clusters of Schistosomiasis in Anhui Province of China: A Study from the Perspective of Application," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-14, September.

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