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A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bivariate Division and a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network Optimized by Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization for Day-Ahead Electricity Price

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  • Zhilong Wang
  • Feng Liu
  • Jie Wu
  • Jianzhou Wang

Abstract

In the electricity market, the electricity price plays an inevitable role. Nevertheless, accurate price forecasting, a vital factor affecting both government regulatory agencies and public power companies, remains a huge challenge and a critical problem. Determining how to address the accurate forecasting problem becomes an even more significant task in an era in which electricity is increasingly important. Based on the chaos particle swarm optimization (CPSO), the backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN), and the idea of bivariate division, this paper proposes a bivariate division BPANN (BD-BPANN) method and the CPSO-BD-BPANN method for forecasting electricity price. The former method creatively transforms the electricity demand and price to be a new variable, named DV, which is calculated using the division principle, to forecast the day-ahead electricity by multiplying the forecasted values of the DVs and forecasted values of the demand. Next, to improve the accuracy of BD-BPANN, chaos particle swarm optimization and BD-BPANN are synthesized to form a novel model, CPSO-BD-BPANN. In this study, CPSO is utilized to optimize the initial parameters of BD-BPANN to make its output more stable than the original model. Finally, two forecasting strategies are proposed regarding different situations.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhilong Wang & Feng Liu & Jie Wu & Jianzhou Wang, 2014. "A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bivariate Division and a Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network Optimized by Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization for Day-Ahead Electricity Price," Abstract and Applied Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-31, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnlaaa:249208
    DOI: 10.1155/2014/249208
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Ping & Nie, Ying & Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia, 2023. "Multivariable short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial intelligence and multi-input multi-output scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Nie, Ying & Li, Ping & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Lifang, 2024. "A novel multivariate electrical price bi-forecasting system based on deep learning, a multi-input multi-output structure and an operator combination mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 366(C).

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