IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hin/jnddns/4907468.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asset Price Dynamics in a Chartist-Fundamentalist Model with Time Delays: A Bifurcation Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Loretti I. Dobrescu
  • Mihaela Neamtu
  • Gabriela Mircea

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamic behavior of asset prices using a chartist-fundamentalist model with two speculative markets. To this effect, we employ a differential system with delays à la Dibeh (2007) to describe the price dynamics and we assume that the two markets are coupled via diffusive coupling terms. We study two different time delay cases, namely, when both markets experience the same time delay and when the time delay is different across markets. First, we theoretically determine that the equilibrium exists and investigate its stability. Second, we establish the general conditions for the existence of local Hopf bifurcations and analyze their direction and stability. The common conclusion from both the delay scenarios we consider is that coupled speculative markets with heterogeneous agents in each, but with different price dynamics, can be synchronized through diffusive coupling. Finally, we provide some numerical illustrations to confirm our theoretical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Loretti I. Dobrescu & Mihaela Neamtu & Gabriela Mircea, 2016. "Asset Price Dynamics in a Chartist-Fundamentalist Model with Time Delays: A Bifurcation Analysis," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2016, pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnddns:4907468
    DOI: 10.1155/2016/4907468
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/DDNS/2016/4907468.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/DDNS/2016/4907468.xml
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2016/4907468?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. LeBaron, Blake, 2001. "Evolution And Time Horizons In An Agent-Based Stock Market," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 225-254, April.
    2. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    3. Karaoglu, Esra & Merdan, Huseyin, 2014. "Hopf bifurcations of a ratio-dependent predator–prey model involving two discrete maturation time delays," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 159-168.
    4. C. H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
    5. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
    6. Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March.
    7. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October.
    8. Robert M. May & Simon A. Levin & George Sugihara, 2008. "Ecology for bankers," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7181), pages 893-894, February.
    9. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
    10. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
    11. Dibeh, Ghassan, 2005. "Speculative dynamics in a time-delay model of asset prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 199-208.
    12. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2005. "The Dynamic Interaction of Speculation and Diversification," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 17-52.
    13. Daniel J. Fenn & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Neil F. Johnson & Nick S. Jones, 2010. "Temporal Evolution of Financial Market Correlations," Papers 1011.3225, arXiv.org, revised May 2011.
    14. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    15. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    16. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 503-536, September.
    17. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
    18. Bouchaud,Jean-Philippe & Potters,Marc, 2003. "Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521819169, September.
    19. Dibeh, Ghassan, 2007. "Contagion effects in a chartist–fundamentalist model with time delays," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 52-57.
    20. Daniel J. Fenn & Mason A. Porter & Mark McDonald & Stacy Williams & Neil F. Johnson & Nick S. Jones, 2008. "Dynamic communities in multichannel data: An application to the foreign exchange market during the 2007--2008 credit crisis," Papers 0811.3988, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2009.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luca Guerrini & Akio Matsumoto & Ferenc Szidarovszky, 2018. "A heterogeneous agent model of asset price dynamics with two time delays," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 41(2), pages 379-397, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ying Qu & Junjie Wei, 2010. "Global Hopf Bifurcation Analysis for a Time-Delayed Model of Asset Prices," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2010, pages 1-17, March.
    2. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2015. "Testing of a market fraction model and power-law behaviour in the DAX 30," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-17.
    3. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & He, Xue-Zhong, 2007. "Heterogeneous expectations and speculative behavior in a dynamic multi-asset framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 408-427, March.
    5. Yeh, Chia-Hsuan & Yang, Chun-Yi, 2010. "Examining the effectiveness of price limits in an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2089-2108, October.
    6. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    7. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017. "The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
    8. Tai, Chung-Ching & Chen, Shu-Heng & Yang, Lee-Xieng, 2018. "Cognitive ability and earnings performance: Evidence from double auction market experiments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 409-440.
    9. Sansone, Alessandro & Garofalo, Giuseppe, 2007. "Asset price dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous trading strategies and time delays," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 247-257.
    10. Simon Cramer & Torsten Trimborn, 2019. "Stylized Facts and Agent-Based Modeling," Papers 1912.02684, arXiv.org.
    11. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Frank H. Westerhoff, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Nonlinear Survey," Chapters, in: J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Thomas Holtfort, 2019. "From standard to evolutionary finance: a literature survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 207-232, June.
    14. Xue-Zhong He, 2003. "Asset Pricing, Volatility and Market Behaviour: A Market Fraction Approach," Research Paper Series 95, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    15. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2007. "Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3396-3426, October.
    16. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Pellizzari, Paolo, 2012. "A Dynamic Analysis Of The Microstructure Of Moving Average Rules In A Double Auction Market," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 556-575, September.
    17. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    18. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2008. "Heterogeneity, convergence, and autocorrelations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 59-79.
    19. Maximilian Beikirch & Simon Cramer & Martin Frank & Philipp Otte & Emma Pabich & Torsten Trimborn, 2019. "Robust Mathematical Formulation and Probabilistic Description of Agent-Based Computational Economic Market Models," Papers 1904.04951, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    20. Youwei Li & Xue-Zhong He, 2005. "Long Memory, Heterogeneity, and Trend Chasing," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 113, Society for Computational Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hin:jnddns:4907468. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mohamed Abdelhakeem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hindawi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.