Coupling Coordination and High-Quality Development Pathways Among Tourism, Economy, and Ecology in the Arid and Semiarid Regions of Northwestern China

Tourism development can stimulate regional economic growth and improve living standards in economically underdeveloped regions. However, rapid tourism expansion may also negatively affect regional sustainability, particularly in eco-fragile areas. As a representative arid and semiarid region, Northwestern China provides a valuable case for analyzing the coupling coordination relationship within the tourism–economy–ecology (TEE) system. This analysis is crucial for promoting sustainable tourism development in eco-fragile areas. This paper utilizes the entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree (CCD), and obstacle degree models to assess the development level, coupling status, and related obstacles within the TEE system across the five northwestern provinces from 2011 to 2022. The results show the following. (1) While the northwest region has made significant strides in environmental management, most provinces have low comprehensive development status in tourism and economic subsystems, which lag behind the ecological system’s development. (2) The CCD level in each province improved continuously from 2011 to 2022. Provinces with lower coupling coordination in 2011 had higher improvement rates in the later period. (3) The obstacles to coordinated development shifted over time, ranging from low foreign exchange earnings from tourism and low international tourist arrivals in 2011 to low forest management areas in 2019 and a significant decline in foreign exchange earnings from tourism in 2022. (4) The impact of COVID-19 on the coordinated development of the TEE system has been relatively manageable. While most provinces in the northwest continue to see steady ecological improvement, the challenges of lagging tourism development and insufficient economic growth momentum remain significant. Based on this analysis, this paper offers four policy recommendations to support the sustainable development of arid and semiarid regions in Northwestern China. These recommendations provide valuable insights for achieving high-quality economic development in other eco-fragile areas.