IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hin/complx/6686547.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China

Author

Listed:
  • Lin Zhang
  • Haochen Wang
  • Zhongyang Liu
  • Xiao Fan Liu
  • Xin Feng
  • Ye Wu
  • Peter Giesl

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic spread catastrophically over the world since the spring of 2020. In this paper, a heterogeneous branching process with immigration is established to quantify the human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 in local communities, based on the temporal and structural transmission patterns extracted from public case disclosures by four provincial Health Commissions in China. With proper parameter settings, our branching model matches the actual transmission chains satisfactorily and, therefore, sheds light on the underlying COVID-19 spreading mechanism. Moreover, based on our branching model, the efficacy of home quarantine and social distancing are explored, providing a reference for the effective prevention of COVID-19 worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin Zhang & Haochen Wang & Zhongyang Liu & Xiao Fan Liu & Xin Feng & Ye Wu & Peter Giesl, 2021. "A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-11, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:6686547
    DOI: 10.1155/2021/6686547
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/6686547.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2021/6686547.xml
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2021/6686547?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hin:complx:6686547. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mohamed Abdelhakeem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hindawi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.