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Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of Development

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitry Belousov

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (Russia))

  • Igor Frolov

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The paper considers methodological aspects of long-term technology forecasting with reference to modern economical development of Russia. It describes a matrix of long-term scenarios of technological development of Russia based either on primary-energy or innovation-active orientation of the national economy. The paper also provides the forecasts of promising technologies in several priority sectors in the framework of the scenario of local technological leadership that is more preferable for Russia. Finally, it considers different kinds of risks (technological, administrative, political) that should be included in long-term forecasts. Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry Belousov & Igor Frolov, 2008. "Long-Term Science and Technology Forecasting: Methodologies, Future Visions, Scenarios of Development," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 2(3), pages 54-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:2:y:2008:i:3:p:54-66
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    File URL: http://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2010/12/31/1208181302/07_54_66.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    technology forecast;

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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