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Korrelationsmønstre i danske konjunkturcykler

Author

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  • Hansen, Frank Øland

    (Danmarks Nationalbank, Økonomisk Afdeling)

  • Knudsen, Dan

    (Danmarks Nationalbank, Økonomisk Afdeling)

Abstract

Danish business cycles from 1974 to 2000 are studied. The HP-filter is applied and a number of empirical regularities are identified: Consumption has often led the GDP cycle while investment, especially construction, has tended to follow with a lag. Import is clearly pro cyclical and foreign trade has modified the swings in GDP. Price and wage levels are found to be dominantly counter-cyclical. However, wage changes seem pro-cyclical as they correlate negatively with unemployment and it is not necessary to attribute a dominant role to supply shocks to explain the price cycle. A counter-cyclical pattern in the profit share suggests that demand shocks impact prices via the wage formation rather than pulling prices directly

Suggested Citation

  • Hansen, Frank Øland & Knudsen, Dan, 2004. "Korrelationsmønstre i danske konjunkturcykler," Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, Nationaløkonomisk Forening, vol. 2004(1), pages 257-273.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:jdaecn:0191
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abildgren, Kim, 2012. "Business cycles, monetary transmission and shocks to financial stability: empirical evidence from a new set of Danish quarterly national accounts 1948-2010," Working Paper Series 1458, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    konjunkturcykler; korrelationsmønstre;

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General

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