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Velferdsstatens finansieringsproblem: Utsikter i »annerledeslandet« Norge

Author

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  • Holmøy, Erling

    (Forskningsleder, Statistics Norway)

Abstract

Torben Andersen og Lars Haagen Pedersen (heretter AP) gir i sin artikkel en grundig analyse av problemene man på lang sikt vil få med å finansiere den danske velferdsstaten. Jeg har tro på at mulighetene for gjennomslag i den politiske debatten øker når man kan supplere kvalitative momenter med den typen godt underbygd tallfesting av de relevante effektene som Velferdskommisionen (VFK) har gjennomført. Tall er ofte de beste adjektiver. Selv om de alltid vil være usikre, finnes det ingen egentlige alternativer til langsiktige fremskrivninger. Den rasjonelle holdningen til usikkerhet er ikke å tillegge prediksjonene liten eller ingen vekt, og usikkerhet er heller ikke det samme som bias. Fastlegging av realistiske størrelsesordener på problemene og relevante effekter disiplinerer debatten, det muliggjør en bedre prioritering av hvilke usikre forhold bør avklares ytterligere, og av hvor det er viktigst med politiske tiltak, gitt dagens informasjon. Det er derfor meget interessant at man i Danmark har utviklet et så avansert og relevant modellverktøy som DREAM for analyser av så aktuelle og tempererte problemstillinger som finansiering av velferdsstaten reiser.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmøy, Erling, 2005. "Velferdsstatens finansieringsproblem: Utsikter i »annerledeslandet« Norge," Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, Nationaløkonomisk Forening, vol. 2005(1), pages 265-274.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:jdaecn:0173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    finansproblemer; velfærdsstat;

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General

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