IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v9y2017i7p1177-d103775.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Integrated Resource Strategic Planning Model: A Case Study of China’s Power Sector Planning into 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Xu

    (School of Management Science and Engineering, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Shanxi 030006, China)

  • Jiahai Yuan

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Huiming Xu

    (State Grid Information Centre/State Grid Information & Telecommunication Co., Ltd., Beijing 100761, China)

Abstract

This paper proposes a Dynamic Integrated Resource Strategic Planning (DIRSP) model based on a semi-Markov decision-making process. Considering the policy transfer probability matrix, we discuss the influence of different policy portfolios and input intensity on the timing and scale of low-carbon transition during the power planning process. In addition, we discuss various planning scenarios from a socio-technical system transition perspective. Scenarios are compiled to compare the pathways of power planning in China during 2015–2050 under different policies, including a typical reproduction pathway with unchanged policy that maintains the original coal-dominated technology pathway, a de-alignment/re-alignment pathway where renewable energy power technologies develop from niches to mainstream while the planning time for peak coal power moves ahead in 10–20 years due to subsidies to renewable and carbon tax policy, and the substitution and reconfiguration pathways in which renewable energy technologies compete with coal power in parallel, in which coal power will peak by 2020 while wind power and solar power will realize large-scale development by 2020 and 2030, respectively. Case study on power planning in China indicates that the methodology proposed in our study can enhance our understanding on the low-carbon transition process and the interaction between energy policy and transition pathway.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Xu & Jiahai Yuan & Huiming Xu, 2017. "Dynamic Integrated Resource Strategic Planning Model: A Case Study of China’s Power Sector Planning into 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-21, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:7:p:1177-:d:103775
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/7/1177/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/7/1177/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhen & Yu, Zhongfu & Liu, Jiangyan & Hu, Zhaoguang & Xu, Ming, 2012. "Managing electric power system transition in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 5660-5677.
    2. Malik, Arif S. & Sumaoy, Cecilio U., 2003. "A case study of local integrated resource planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 711-720.
    3. Elkarmi, Fawwaz, 2008. "Load research as a tool in electric power system planning, operation, and control--The case of Jordan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1757-1763, May.
    4. Giatrakos, Georgios P. & Tsoutsos, Theocharis D. & Zografakis, Nikos, 2009. "Sustainable power planning for the island of Crete," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1222-1238, April.
    5. Hu, Zhaoguang & Tan, Xiandong & Yang, Fan & Yang, Ming & Wen, Quan & Shan, Baoguo & Han, Xinyang, 2010. "Integrated resource strategic planning: Case study of energy efficiency in the Chinese power sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6391-6397, November.
    6. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2012. "Delivering power system transition in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 751-772.
    7. Yilmaz, Pelin & Hakan Hocaoglu, M. & Konukman, Alp Er S., 2008. "A pre-feasibility case study on integrated resource planning including renewables," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1223-1232, March.
    8. Hu, Zhaoguang & Wen, Quan & Wang, Jianhui & Tan, Xiandong & Nezhad, Hameed & Shan, Baoguo & Han, Xinyang, 2010. "Integrated resource strategic planning in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4635-4642, August.
    9. Geels, Frank W. & Schot, Johan, 2007. "Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-417, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yan Xu & Junjie Kang & Jiahai Yuan, 2018. "The Prospective of Nuclear Power in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Jianbo Yang & Qunyi Liu & Xin Li & Xiandan Cui, 2017. "Overview of Wind Power in China: Status and Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-12, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Kang, Junjie & Zhang, Xingping & Hu, Zheng, 2014. "Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China's power sector planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 27-40.
    2. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2012. "Delivering power system transition in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 751-772.
    3. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhen & Yu, Zhongfu & Liu, Jiangyan & Hu, Zhaoguang & Xu, Ming, 2012. "Managing electric power system transition in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 5660-5677.
    4. Li, Ying & Lukszo, Zofia & Weijnen, Margot, 2015. "The implications of CO2 price for China’s power sector decarbonization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 53-64.
    5. Child, Michael & Breyer, Christian, 2017. "Transition and transformation: A review of the concept of change in the progress towards future sustainable energy systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 11-26.
    6. Yuan, Jiahai & Lei, Qi & Xiong, Minpeng & Guo, Jingsheng & Hu, Zheng, 2016. "The prospective of coal power in China: Will it reach a plateau in the coming decade?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 495-504.
    7. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    8. Kejia Yang & Johan Schot & Bernhard Truffer, 2020. "Shaping the Directionality of Sustainability Transitions: The Diverging Development Patterns of Solar PV in Two Chinese Provinces," SPRU Working Paper Series 2020-14, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Zheng, Yanan & Hu, Zhaoguang & Wang, Jianhui & Wen, Quan, 2014. "IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) with interconnected smart grids in integrating renewable energy and implementing DSM (demand side management) in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 863-874.
    10. Dewick, Paul & Foster, Chris, 2018. "Focal Organisations and Eco–innovation in Consumption and Production Systems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 161-169.
    11. Zhao, Zhen-Yu & Chang, Rui-Dong & Chen, Yu-Long, 2016. "What hinder the further development of wind power in China?—A socio-technical barrier study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 465-476.
    12. Lachman, Daniël A., 2013. "A survey and review of approaches to study transitions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 269-276.
    13. Yuan, Jiahai & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2011. "Low carbon electricity development in China--An IRSP perspective based on Super Smart Grid," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 2707-2713, August.
    14. Xiaoyang Sun & Baosheng Zhang & Xu Tang & Benjamin C. McLellan & Mikael Höök, 2016. "Sustainable Energy Transitions in China: Renewable Options and Impacts on the Electricity System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, November.
    15. Haonan Zhang & Xingping Zhang & Jiahai Yuan, 2020. "Coal power in China: A multi‐level perspective review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(6), November.
    16. Kejia Yang & Ralitsa Hiteva & Johan Schot, 2020. "Niche Acceleration driven by Expectation Dynamics among Niche and Regime Actors: China’s Wind and Solar Power Development," SPRU Working Paper Series 2020-03, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    17. Marcel Bednarz & Tom Broekel, 2020. "Pulled or pushed? The spatial diffusion of wind energy between local demand and supply," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 29(4), pages 893-916.
    18. Weking, Jörg & Desouza, Kevin C. & Fielt, Erwin & Kowalkiewicz, Marek, 2023. "Metaverse-enabled entrepreneurship," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    19. Hirt, Léon F. & Sahakian, Marlyne & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2022. "What subnational imaginaries for solar PV? The case of the Swiss energy transition," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Wiegand, Julia, 2017. "Dezentrale Stromerzeugung als Chance zur Stärkung der Energie-Resilienz: Eine qualitative Analyse kommunaler Strategien im Raum Unna," Wuppertaler Studienarbeiten zur nachhaltigen Entwicklung, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, volume 11, number 11.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:7:p:1177-:d:103775. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.