A Multidimensional Exploration of the Factors Influencing Comprehensive Grain Production Capacity from a Spatial Perspective

Improving comprehensive grain production capacity and ensuring food security is a critical step toward promoting national economic development and social stability. This study constructs an evaluation framework for comprehensive grain production capacity, examining five key dimensions: resource endowment, factor inputs, scientific and technological infrastructure, grain output, and sustainable development. The entropy method is employed to assess the national comprehensive grain production capacity. Subsequently, the study was performed based on the panel data from 31 provinces in China, covering the period from 2011 to 2022. This analysis was framed within the context of the Spatial Durbin Model and focused on four key aspects: the inputs of production factors, advancements in agricultural technology, national food policies, and the impact of natural disasters. The results indicate the following: (1) Grain production in the 31 provinces of the country demonstrates a significant positive correlation, with a clear space centralization effect. (2) The sown area of grain, labor inputs, fertilizer usage, and the advancement of the digital economy are the primary positive factors influencing regional grain production, but the disaster-affected area has a negative impact on grain production. As a result, this study makes policy recommendations to increase food security and sustainable agricultural development by increasing the sown area of grain, optimizing fertilizer use, and improving agricultural practice digitization. Special emphasis is being placed on reviving high-quality agricultural development by hastening the integration of the digital economy into agriculture.