Interactions and Driving Force of Land Cover and Ecosystem Service Before and After the Earthquake in Wenchuan County

The Wenchuan earthquake, an unexpected magnitude 8.0 mega-earthquake that struck on 12 May 2008, significantly changed land cover (LC), particularly affecting vegetation and rock cover. However, the long-term effects of LC changes on ecosystem services (ESs) remain unclear in earthquake-affected regions, especially across different spatial scales. This study, focusing on Wenchuan County, employs a multi-model framework that integrates fractional vegetation coverage (FVC), rock exposure rate (FR), and ecosystem services (ESs), combining correlation analysis, geographically weighted regression (GWR), Self-organizing map (SOM) clustering, and XGBoost-SHAP model, to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics, interrelationships, and driving mechanisms of land cover (LC) and ESs before and after the earthquake. Results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, FVC and FR fluctuated markedly under earthquake influence, with slight declines in habitat quality (HQ) and carbon storage (CS) and notable improvements in soil conservation (SC) and water yield (WY). (2) With increasing elevation, the FVC–CS–SC group exhibited a downward trend and synergy, while the FR–HQ–WY group increased and also showed synergy; trade-offs and synergies became more pronounced at larger scales, displaying strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. (3) Elevation (explaining 10–60% of variance) was the main driver for LC and ESs, with land use, slope, human activities, climate, and geological conditions significantly impacting individual indicators. At the same time, the existing geological hazard points are mainly concentrated along both sides of the river valleys, which may be associated with intensified human–land conflicts. These findings offer valuable insights into ecological restoration and sustainable development in earthquake-affected regions.