Advancing Saudi Vision 2030 for Sustainable Development: Modeling Influencing Factors on Adolescents’ Choice of STEM Careers Using Structural Equation Modeling, with a Comparative Analysis of Bahrain and Singapore

Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) are crucial for economic development and play a significant role in achieving sustainable development goals. Despite this, there is a shortage of skilled STEM professionals and a declining interest in STEM education and careers. The Saudi Vision 2030 goal of economic diversification and sustainable development aims to transform Saudi Arabia into a knowledge-based economy driven by innovation and sustainability. This study investigates factors influencing adolescents’ attitudes toward STEM careers in Saudi Arabia, with comparative insights from Bahrain and Singapore. Structural equation models (SEM) were constructed for each country to analyze the influence of scientific self-concept, school belonging, and teacher effectiveness on students’ choices of science careers. Mediation analysis examined the interest and value of science as mediators in these relationships. Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted to validate model constructs before building SEM models. Data from TIMSS 2019 for eighth-grade students was used to develop model constructs based on relevant items from the student questionnaire. Findings reveal that students’ interest in and value of science significantly influence career decisions, with self-concept and teacher engagement playing crucial roles. Teacher effectiveness had the strongest impact on science interest in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, while self-concept was most influential in Singapore. These results highlight the importance of fostering teacher engagement and self-concept to encourage students’ career paths in science. To support this, Saudi Arabia should enhance teacher training programs by integrating mentorship, active learning strategies, and technology driven instruction to improve student engagement. Adopting Singapore’s blended learning model can foster self-confidence and independence in STEM education, while hands-on learning and career exposure programs can strengthen students’ self-concept and long-term commitment to STEM fields. Additionally, expanding extracurricular STEM initiatives and industry partnerships will help connect classroom learning to real-world applications. By aligning STEM education reforms with these insights, Saudi Arabia can cultivate a skilled workforce that supports its economic transformation under Vision 2030.