The Coupling Coordination Characteristics and Graded Control Measures of Cultivated Land Quality and Economic Development in the Northern Slope Economic Belt of the Tianshan Mountains Based on Future Scenarios

This paper addresses the dual challenges of food security and sustainable development by examining the balance between arable land quality and economic development. Coordinating and optimizing development models is essential for achieving sustainable agricultural and economic progress. The North Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountain (UANST), a semi-arid agriculturalpastoral transition zone in northwest China, exemplifies a coupled human environment system where global sustainability targets confront regional development imperatives. Focusing on seven cities and counties within the UANST, this study employs information sensitivity indicators to quantitatively select evaluation metrics. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the coupling and coordination degree (CCD) between arable land quality and economic development in the region. Using a system dynamics model (SDM), four scenario models were developed to predict and analyze the interaction between cultivated land quality and economic development on the North Slope of Tianshan. The study proposes a model to improve coordination between cultivated land quality and economic development. The key findings are as follows: (1) “preliminary screening + information sensitivity analysis” method identified 12 arable land quality evaluation indicators and 11 economic development evaluation indicators for the North Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan. (2) The coupling coordination between arable land quality and economic development in the seven counties and cities improved from 0.469 to 0.663, reflecting a transition from “marginal imbalance” to “primary coordination”. By 2021, all regions had reached the initial stage of coordinated development. (3) Among the development models analyzed, the coordinated development model achieved the highest coupling coordination score (0.9136). This model also demonstrated lower carbon dioxide emissions and reduced water resource consumption, alleviating environmental pressures and offering an optimal solution for regional coordinated development.