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Leveraging the GEV Model to Estimate Flood Due to Extreme Rainfall in Ungauged Dry Catchments of the Gobi Region

Author

Listed:
  • Myagmarsuren Bat-Erdene

    (Department of Geography, School of Art and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia)

  • Munkhtsetseg Zorigt

    (Department of Geography, School of Art and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia
    Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, School of Art and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia)

  • Oyunbaatar Dambaravjaa

    (Hydrological Research Division, The Information and Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment, Ulaanbaatar 15160, Mongolia)

  • Dorjsuren Dechinlkhundev

    (Fresh Water Institute, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia)

  • Erdenesukh Sumiya

    (Department of Geography, School of Art and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia
    Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, School of Art and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia)

  • Michael Nones

    (Department of Hydrology and Hydrodynamics, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, 01-452 Warszawa, Poland)

Abstract

Extreme high flows can have negative economic, social, and ecological effects and are expected to become more severe in many regions due to climate change. Knowledge of maximum flow regimes and estimation of extreme rainfall is important, especially in ungauged dry regions, for planning and infrastructure development. In this study, we propose a regional method for estimating extreme flow regimes and modeled extreme rainfall using the extreme value theory, with examples from the Gobi region of Mongolia. The first step is to apply the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory for the maximum rainfall data using 44-year observational data covering the period 1978–2022. Then, estimated rainfall with a 100-year return period is used for the empirical equation of the maximum flood calculation. As a result, most stations’ maximum rainfall follows a Fréchet distribution and 100-year return period rainfall values that range between 27.8–130.6 mm. The local reference value in the 100-year return period rainfall is defined as 90 mm for the whole Gobi region. Our results show that extremely high rainfall in the Gobi region has changed from −7% to 16%, leading to higher flood events. These findings further provide evidence for the maximum rainfall for flood calculation, climate change impact assessment, water resource planning, and management studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Myagmarsuren Bat-Erdene & Munkhtsetseg Zorigt & Oyunbaatar Dambaravjaa & Dorjsuren Dechinlkhundev & Erdenesukh Sumiya & Michael Nones, 2025. "Leveraging the GEV Model to Estimate Flood Due to Extreme Rainfall in Ungauged Dry Catchments of the Gobi Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:6:p:2500-:d:1610772
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ranjana Ray Chaudhuri & Prateek Sharma, 2020. "Addressing uncertainty in extreme rainfall intensity for semi-arid urban regions: case study of Delhi, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2307-2324, December.
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