IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i5p2221-d1604968.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Assessment of Extreme Drought and Extreme Wetness During Growth Stages of Major Crops in China

Author

Listed:
  • Mingyang Sun

    (Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China)

  • Yongjiu Dai

    (Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China)

  • Shulei Zhang

    (Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China)

  • Hongbin Liang

    (Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China)

Abstract

Climate change has increased the frequency of extreme droughts and floods in China, threatening agricultural production and food security. However, the impacts of these extreme precipitation events on crops (maize, wheat, and rice) during key growth stages remain poorly understood. To address this, we developed a three-step analytical framework: First, we used transpiration data to identify critical crop growth stages across China. Then, we applied a 10-day standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to quantify drought and extreme wetness conditions during each growth phase. Finally, we integrated these data into an XGBoost model to assess the relationship between extreme weather and crop yield fluctuations. The results show that maize is most sensitive to water variability during both development and mid-season stages, while wheat is particularly vulnerable to drought during development and rice is mainly affected by water stress during the mid-season. Extreme drought risks are highest in the Northeast Plain, North China Plain, and southern China, while extreme wetness risks are concentrated in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin and southeastern coastal regions. Notably, extreme drought risks are significantly more pronounced than those associated with extreme wetness. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted agricultural strategies to promote sustainable agricultural development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingyang Sun & Yongjiu Dai & Shulei Zhang & Hongbin Liang, 2025. "Risk Assessment of Extreme Drought and Extreme Wetness During Growth Stages of Major Crops in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-25, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:5:p:2221-:d:1604968
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/5/2221/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/5/2221/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xi Wang & Zhanyan Liu & Huili Chen, 2022. "Investigating Flood Impact on Crop Production under a Comprehensive and Spatially Explicit Risk Evaluation Framework," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-23, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vladimír Kišš & Jakub Pagáč & Andrej Tárník & Ján Čimo, 2022. "Changes in Vegetation Period Length in Slovakia under the Conditions of Climate Change for 1931–2110," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Davide Marino & Margherita Palmieri & Angelo Marucci & Mariangela Soraci & Antonio Barone & Silvia Pili, 2023. "Linking Flood Risk Mitigation and Food Security: An Analysis of Land-Use Change in the Metropolitan Area of Rome," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Shrestha, Nirman & Schmitter, Petra & Birhanu, Birhanu Zemadim, 2023. "A framework to monitor crop-specific drought and flood impacts using remote sensing datasets," IWMI Books, Reports H052653, International Water Management Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:5:p:2221-:d:1604968. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.