The Evolution and Drivers of Hydrochemistry in Nam Co Lake, the Third Largest Lake on the Tibetan Plateau, over the Last 20 Years

The Tibetan Plateau, a critical regulator of the global water cycle and climate system, represents a highly sensitive region to environmental changes, with significant implications for sustainable development. This study focuses on Nam Co Lake, the third largest lake on the Tibetan Plateau, and investigates the hydrochemical evolution of the lake and the driving mechanisms in regard to the lake–river–groundwater system within the Nam Co Basin over the last 20 years. Our findings provide critical insights for sustainable water resource management in regard to fragile alpine lake ecosystems. The hydrochemical analyses revealed distinct temporal patterns in the total dissolved solids, showing an increasing trend during the 2000s, followed by a decrease in the 2010s. Piper diagrams demonstrated a gradual change in the anion composition from the Cl type to the HCO 3 type over the study period. The ion ratio analyses identified rock weathering (particularly silicate, halite, sulfate, and carbonate weathering), ion exchange, and evaporation processes as primary controlling processes, with notable differences between water bodies: while all four weathering processes contributed to the lake’s water chemistry, only halite and carbonate weathering influenced river and groundwater compositions. The comparative analysis revealed more pronounced ion exchange processes in lake water than in river and groundwater systems. Climate change impacts were manifested through two primary mechanisms: (1) enhanced evaporation, leading to elevated ion concentrations and isotopic enrichment; and (2) temperature-related effects on the water chemistry through increased dilution from precipitation and glacial meltwater. Understanding these mechanisms is essential for developing adaptive strategies to maintain water security and ecosystem sustainability. The relationships established between climate drivers and hydrochemical responses provide a scientific basis for predicting future changes and informing sustainable management practices for inland lake systems across the Tibetan Plateau.