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Evaluation Index System for Thermokarst Lake Susceptibility: An Effective Tool for Disaster Warning on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

Author

Listed:
  • Lan Li

    (College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Huanghuai University, Zhumadian 463000, China)

  • Yilu Zhao

    (School of Water and Environment, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China)

  • Xuan Li

    (College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Huanghuai University, Zhumadian 463000, China)

  • Wankui Ni

    (School of Water and Environment, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China)

  • Fujun Niu

    (College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China)

Abstract

In the context of global warming, landscapes with ice-rich permafrost, such as the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), are highly vulnerable. The expansion of thermokarst lakes erodes the surrounding land, leading to collapses of various scales and posing a threat to nearby infrastructure and the environment. Assessing the susceptibility of thermokarst lakes in remote, data-scarce areas remains a challenging task. In this study, Landsat imagery and human–computer interaction were employed to improve the accuracy of thermokarst lake classification. The study also identified the key factors influencing the occurrence of thermokarst lakes, including the lake density, soil moisture (SM), slope, vegetation, snow cover, ground temperature, precipitation, and permafrost stability (PS). The results indicate that the most susceptible areas cover 19.02% of the QTP’s permafrost region, primarily located in southwestern Qinghai, northeastern Tibet, and the Hoh Xil region. This study provides a framework for mapping the spatial distribution of thermokarst lakes and contributes to understanding the impact of climate change on the QTP.

Suggested Citation

  • Lan Li & Yilu Zhao & Xuan Li & Wankui Ni & Fujun Niu, 2025. "Evaluation Index System for Thermokarst Lake Susceptibility: An Effective Tool for Disaster Warning on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:1464-:d:1588467
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yilu Zhao & Aidi Huo & Zhixin Zhao & Qi Liu & Xuantao Zhao & Yuanjia Huang & Jialu An, 2024. "Novel Method for Evaluating Wetland Ecological Environment Quality Based on Coupled Remote Sensing Ecological Index and Landscape Pattern Indices: Case Study of Dianchi Lake Wetlands, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Zhixin Zhao & Aidi Huo & Qi Liu & Jianbing Peng & Ahmed Elbeltagi & Mohamed EL-Sayed Abuarab & Mohamed Said Desouky Abu-Hashim, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variation in the Coupling Relationship between Human Activities and Soil Erosion—A Case Study in the Weihe River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-19, July.
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