Technological Progress and Scale Efficiency Changes in China’s Energy Industry: A Comparison of New and Traditional Energy Under the DEA-Malmquist-Tobit Model

With the growth of the new energy sector, China’s energy industry is experiencing significant transformations. This research aims to evaluate the technological progress and changes in scale efficiency of listed companies in China’s energy industry, with a particular focus on the comparison between new and traditional energy sectors. This research investigates various efficiency values, types of returns to scale, the role of patents in fostering technological progress, and the influence of financial leverage on scale efficiency changes, a comprehensive evaluation of the industry that offers a critical foundation for formulating targeted strategies. This research uses data from A-share listed energy companies spanning from 2017 to 2023, constructs input–output indicators centered on research and development (R&D) and profitability, and applies the DEA model to examine the operating efficiency of energy listed companies. A Malmquist indices is developed to analyze the dynamic evolution of technological change and scale efficiency change. In contrast to the conventional approach of using DEA efficiency scores as the dependent variable in Tobit regressions, this research uses the Malmquist indices, which more effectively captures the dynamic evolution of technological progress and scale efficiency. The study empirically assesses the impact of patent accumulation on technological progress through a Tobit panel model with random effects and the effect of financial leverage on scale efficiency changes using a Tobit four-stage incremental regression. Finally, the study draws the following conclusions: 1. In terms of industry static correlation, listed new energy companies exhibit polarization in returns to scale types; in contrast, traditional energy listed companies have a more stable and mature returns to scale structure. 2. In terms of dynamic correlation, technological progress in the new energy sector is substantial, while the traditional energy sector faces bottlenecks; efficiency changes in both industries are dependent on scale efficiency changes, rather than pure efficiency changes. 3. Regarding influencing factors for new energy listed companies, patent accumulation has a limited impact on technological progress, while financial leverage and scale efficiency change exhibit a non-linear relationship, with an inflection point effect observed in companies with high financial leverage. Finally, this study offers targeted policy recommendations for new energy and traditional energy listed companies based on the findings.