Author
Listed:
- Liang Shen
(State Grid Corporation of China Big Data Center, Beijing 100033, China)
- Qiheng Yuan
(State Grid Corporation of China Big Data Center, Beijing 100033, China)
- Qi He
(State Grid Corporation of China Big Data Center, Beijing 100033, China)
- Peng Jiang
(State Grid Corporation of China Big Data Center, Beijing 100033, China)
- Haoyang Ji
(Carbon Econometric Research Center, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China
School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)
- Junyi Shi
(Carbon Econometric Research Center, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China
School of Statistics, Beijing Normal University, 19 XinJieKouWai Street, Beijing 100875, China)
Abstract
This study innovatively develops a multi-objective Markal-Macro model, which simultaneously considers three objectives: minimizing carbon emissions from energy consumption, minimizing carbon emissions from production processes, and maximizing societal welfare. Based on the Cobb–Douglas production function, we construct a production function of carbon emission and use it as a coupling equation of the Markal-Macro model (Markal is the abbreviation of market allocation, and Macro is the abbreviation of macroeconomy). This enables the coupling of the endogenous variables of carbon emissions and those related to maximizing societal welfare. By collecting relevant data on energy consumption, production outputs, and key economic indicators, five different scenarios are established. To enhance the computational efficiency of the simulation, we introduce a Firefly Algorithm into the penalty function method. The objective of our simulation is to explore the optimal carbon peak pathway for China. The results indicate that under the baseline scenario, China can achieve its carbon peak by 2029, with the peak value reaching approximately 12.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide. Finally, based on the simulation results, this study provides specific policy recommendations for China’s carbon peak pathway, addressing aspects such as industrial structure, energy consumption structure, the share of clean energy, economic growth targets, and the growth of emission reduction expenditures, while considering regional five-year plans and regional carbon peak strategies. From the aspect of the practical contributions, this article not only provides a set of methods for policymakers to make the Carbon Peak Implementation Plan but also offers an optimal path to improve the sustainable development for China.
Suggested Citation
Liang Shen & Qiheng Yuan & Qi He & Peng Jiang & Haoyang Ji & Junyi Shi, 2024.
"Simulation and Pathway Selection for China’s Carbon Peak: A Multi-Objective Nonlinear Dynamic Optimization Approach,"
Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, December.
Handle:
RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2024:i:1:p:154-:d:1555185
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Yuanyuan Wang & Haoyang Ji & Shiqian Wang & Han Wang & Junyi Shi, 2024.
"Research on Carbon Emissions Estimation in Key Industries Based on the Electricity–Energy–Carbon Model: A Case Study of Henan Province,"
Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-16, June.
- Wei Yang & Qiheng Yuan & Yongli Wang & Fei Zheng & Xin Shi & Yi Li, 2023.
"Carbon Emission Forecasting Study Based on Influence Factor Mining and Mini-Batch Stochastic Gradient Optimization,"
Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-18, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2024:i:1:p:154-:d:1555185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through
the various RePEc services.