Comparative Analysis of Asphalt Pavement Condition Prediction Models

There is a growing global interest in preserving transportation infrastructure. This necessitates routine evaluation and timely maintenance of road networks. The effectiveness of pavement management systems (PMSs) heavily relies on accurate pavement deterioration models. However, there are limited comparative studies on modeling approaches for rural roads in arid climatic conditions using the same datasets for training and testing. This study compares three approaches for developing a pavement condition index (PCI) model as a function of pavement age: classical regression, machine learning, and deep learning. The PCI is a pavement management index widely adopted by many road agencies. A dataset on pavement age and distress was collected over a twenty-year period to develop reliable predictive models. The results demonstrate that the regression model, machine learning model, and the deep learning model achieved a coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) of 0.973, 0.975, and 0.978, respectively. While these values are technically equal, the average bias for the deep learning model (1.14) was significantly lower than that of the other two models, signaling its superiority. Additionally, the trend predicted by the deep learning model showed more distinct phases of PCI deterioration with age than the machine learning model. The latter exhibited a wider range of PCI deterioration rates over time compared to the regression model. The deep learning model outperforms a recently developed regression model for a similar region. These findings highlight the potential of using deep learning to estimate pavement surface conditions accurately and its efficacy in capturing the PCI-age relationship.