Applying an Analytic Hierarchy Process and a Geographic Information System for Assessment of Land Subsidence Risk Due to Drought: A Case Study in Ca Mau Peninsula, Vietnam

The increase in extreme weather events causes secondary hazards that can influence people and the environment enormously. The Ca Mau Peninsula is known as one of the areas most severely affected by drought, and excessive groundwater exploitation is one of the reasons leading to a higher risk of land subsidence. This study uses the Delphi method and the KAMET rule table to analyze and select indicators that affect subsidence. The study uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) analytical hierarchy method to evaluate the weights of influencing factors, combined with geographic information system (GIS) technology to overlay the map layers of the main influencing factors and build a subsidence risk warning zoning map of the study area. The influencing factors selected to evaluate the impact on land subsidence in the study area during the drought period included geological structure, soil characteristics, groundwater flow exploitation, water flow in the dry season, current land use status, and evaporation in the dry season. The weights of these factors were evaluated based on the synthesis of relevant documents as well as consultation with experts. The results indicate that nearly two-thirds of the Ca Mau Peninsula area is currently at very low or low risk of subsidence. Meanwhile, 23% of the area is at medium risk, nearly 9% is at high risk, and 0.1% of the study area is at very high risk. Subsidence risk warning zoning maps can provide a visual and general overview of areas with high subsidence risk, supporting managers in making reference plans for socio-economic development in the Ca Mau Peninsula.