IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i23p10375-d1530666.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing Drought Risk and the Influence of Climate Projections in Sri Lanka for Sustainable Drought Mitigation via Geospatial Techniques

Author

Listed:
  • S. D. Sachini Kaushalya Dissanayake

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Ecological Meteorology, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Yuanshu Jing

    (Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Ecological Meteorology, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Tharana Inu Laksith

    (Post Graduate Institute of Science, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya 20400, Sri Lanka)

Abstract

Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to climatic change, making drought risk assessment an essential tool for the development of effective mitigation strategies. This study addresses existing gaps by employing geospatial techniques to evaluate drought risk in Sri Lanka and focusing on future trends in temperature and precipitation. The observed meteorological data, projected climate variables, and environmental factors were analyzed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Key findings show that the northwestern and southern regions of Sri Lanka are particularly susceptible to increased drought hazards, while the southwestern region, characterized by the highest density of built-up areas, is also more vulnerable. A combination of hazard and vulnerability data reveals that the northwestern, upper–central, and southern regions exhibit relatively high drought risk. The spatial distributions of the predicted meteorological variables align closely with current patterns, and significant increasing trends were observed under the SSP 2.6 and SSP 8.5 scenarios. Precipitation and temperature correlate with drought, indicating an elevated risk of future drought events. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between climate change and drought risk in Sri Lanka, offering valuable insights for policymakers and resource managers to develop sustainable drought mitigation plans.

Suggested Citation

  • S. D. Sachini Kaushalya Dissanayake & Yuanshu Jing & Tharana Inu Laksith, 2024. "Assessing Drought Risk and the Influence of Climate Projections in Sri Lanka for Sustainable Drought Mitigation via Geospatial Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:23:p:10375-:d:1530666
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/23/10375/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/23/10375/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hao Guo & Xingming Zhang & Fang Lian & Yuan Gao & Degen Lin & Jing’ai Wang, 2016. "Drought Risk Assessment Based on Vulnerability Surfaces: A Case Study of Maize," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-22, August.
    2. van Zyl, J. & van der Vyver, A. & Groenewald, J. A., 1987. "The Influence Of Drought And General Economic Effects On Agriculture: A Macro-Analysis," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 26(01), February.
    3. Alahacoon, Niranga & Edirisinghe, M. & Ranagalage, M., 2021. "Satellite-based meteorological and agricultural drought monitoring for agricultural sustainability in Sri Lanka," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 1-13(6):342.
    4. Wei Pei & Qiang Fu & Dong Liu & Tianxiao Li & Kun Cheng & Song Cui, 2019. "A Novel Method for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 2033-2047, April.
    5. C.-Y. Xu & V. Singh, 1998. "A Review on Monthly Water Balance Models for Water Resources Investigations," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 12(1), pages 20-50, February.
    6. Hong Wu & Donald Wilhite, 2004. "An Operational Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment Model for Nebraska, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 33(1), pages 1-21, September.
    7. Shamsuddin Shahid & Houshang Behrawan, 2008. "Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 391-413, September.
    8. Niranga Alahacoon & Mahesh Edirisinghe & Manjula Ranagalage, 2021. "Satellite-Based Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Monitoring for Agricultural Sustainability in Sri Lanka," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-28, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhu, Xiufang & Xu, Kun & Liu, Ying & Guo, Rui & Chen, Lingyi, 2021. "Assessing the vulnerability and risk of maize to drought in China based on the AquaCrop model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Jing Wang & Feng Fang & Qiang Zhang & Jinsong Wang & Yubi Yao & Wei Wang, 2016. "Risk evaluation of agricultural disaster impacts on food production in southern China by probability density method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1605-1634, September.
    3. Nadir Elagib, 2015. "Drought risk during the early growing season in Sahelian Sudan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 1549-1566, December.
    4. Sujith S. Ratnayake & Lalit Kumar & Punchi B. Dharmasena & Harsha K. Kadupitiya & Champika S. Kariyawasam & Danny Hunter, 2021. "Sustainability of Village Tank Cascade Systems of Sri Lanka: Exploring Cascade Anatomy and Socio-Ecological Nexus for Ecological Restoration Planning," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, September.
    5. P. Vijaya Kumar & Mohammed Osman & P. K. Mishra, 2019. "Development and application of a new drought severity index for categorizing drought-prone areas: a case study of undivided Andhra Pradesh state, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(2), pages 793-812, June.
    6. Divya Saini & Omvir Singh & Tejpal Sharma & Pankaj Bhardwaj, 2022. "Geoinformatics and analytic hierarchy process based drought vulnerability assessment over a dryland ecosystem of north-western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1427-1454, November.
    7. Joko Prihantono & Takashi Nakamura & Kazuo Nadaoka & Anindya Wirasatriya & Novi Susetyo Adi, 2022. "Rainfall Variability and Tidal Inundation Influences on Mangrove Greenness in Karimunjawa National Park, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.
    8. Amin Zargar & Rehan Sadiq & Faisal Khan, 2014. "Uncertainty-Driven Characterization of Climate Change Effects on Drought Frequency Using Enhanced SPI," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(1), pages 15-40, January.
    9. Ji Eun Kim & Jisoo Yu & Jae-Hee Ryu & Joo-Heon Lee & Tae-Woong Kim, 2021. "Assessment of regional drought vulnerability and risk using principal component analysis and a Gaussian mixture model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 707-724, October.
    10. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Yu-Liang Zhou & Ju-Liang Jin & Yi-Ming Wei, 2013. "Risk analysis for drought hazard in China: a case study in Huaibei Plain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 879-900, June.
    11. Jeewanthi Sirisena & Denie Augustijn & Aftab Nazeer & Janaka Bamunawala, 2022. "Use of Remote-Sensing-Based Global Products for Agricultural Drought Assessment in the Narmada Basin, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-21, October.
    12. Soleman Imbiri & Raufdeen Rameezdeen & Nicholas Chileshe & Larissa Statsenko, 2021. "A Novel Taxonomy for Risks in Agribusiness Supply Chains: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-24, August.
    13. Saowanit Prabnakorn & Shreedhar Maskey & F. X. Suryadi & Charlotte Fraiture, 2019. "Assessment of drought hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk for rice cultivation in the Mun River Basin in Thailand," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(2), pages 891-911, June.
    14. Md Abdullah Salman & Faisal Ahmed, 2020. "Climatology In Barishal, Bangladesh: A Historical Analysis Of Temperature, Rainfall, Wind Speed And Relative Humidity Data," Malaysian Journal of Geosciences (MJG), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 43-53, September.
    15. Ping Zhang & Zhuo Chen & Gang Ding & Jiaqi Fang & Jinglong Fan & Shengyu Li, 2024. "Spatial Analysis and Risk Assessment of Meteorological Disasters Affecting Cotton Cultivation in Xinjiang: A Comprehensive Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-17, June.
    16. Mondol, Md Anarul Haque & Zhu, Xuan & Dunkerley, David & Henley, Benjamin J., 2021. "Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    17. Zhai, Yijie & Zhang, Tianzuo & Ma, Xiaotian & Shen, Xiaoxu & Ji, Changxing & Bai, Yueyang & Hong, Jinglan, 2021. "Life cycle water footprint analysis of crop production in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    18. Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem & So Kazama & Shamsuddin Shahid & Nepal C. Dey, 2018. "Groundwater-dependent irrigation costs and benefits for adaptation to global change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 953-979, August.
    19. Xiaojing Liu & Jiquan Zhang & Donglai Ma & Yulong Bao & Zhijun Tong & Xingpeng Liu, 2013. "Dynamic risk assessment of drought disaster for maize based on integrating multi-sources data in the region of the northwest of Liaoning Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1393-1409, February.
    20. Hyungjin Shin & Gyumin Lee & Jaenam Lee & Sehoon Kim & Inhong Song, 2023. "Assessment of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability with Focus on Upland Fields and Identification of Primary Management Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:23:p:10375-:d:1530666. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.