Applying the Precautionary Principle to Hidden Collapse

There is growing evidence around the world of serious decline in biodiversity requiring urgent application of precautionary risk management. A better regulatory regime for precautionary management of long-term risk is now an urgent priority. This article addresses the prioritization of long-term risk management by examining risk management of ecosystems that may be experiencing hidden collapse. Hidden collapse refers to the existence of environmental indicators indicative of future collapse of forests, even though the forest appears intact and not at risk of ecosystem collapse. Professor David Lindenmayer and Dr Chloe Sato (Lindenmayer) first identified hidden collapse in 2018 in Mountain Ash forests of Victoria, Australia. The risk of hidden collapse represents a long-term environmental threat and is a potential trigger for application of the precautionary principle (principle). Implicit in hidden collapse are two preconditions for application of the principle; the risk of a serious or irreversible environmental threat, and the existence of scientific uncertainty about the nature of the risk. Despite hidden collapse satisfying these essential preconditions for applying the principle, decision makers did not apply it in respect hidden collapse of Mountain Ash forests in Victoria. This article considers the current status of the principle in regulation and how it can be adjusted to address long term environmental risk.