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A Time Series Forecast of COVID-19 Infections, Recoveries and Fatalities in Nigeria

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  • Henry Egbezien Inegbedion

    (Department of Business Administration, College of Management and Social Sciences, Bowen University, Iwo 232102, Nigeria)

Abstract

The study investigated COVID-19 pandemic infections, recoveries, and fatalities in Nigeria to forecast future values of infections, recoveries, and fatalities and thus ascertain the extent to which the pandemic appeared to be converging with time. The prediction of COVID-19 infections, recoveries, and fatalities was necessitated by the impact that the pandemic had exerted in world economies since its outbreak in late 2019. The quantitative method was employed, and a longitudinal research design was applied. Data were obtained from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). The least-squares test and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) tests were performed to forecast infections, recoveries, and fatalities. The results of the predicted infections for the last five months of the year (August–December 2020) shows that the cases of infections will narrow down within the period. The need for policymakers to implement complete unlocking of the economy for speedy economic recovery was suggested, among others.

Suggested Citation

  • Henry Egbezien Inegbedion, 2023. "A Time Series Forecast of COVID-19 Infections, Recoveries and Fatalities in Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:9:p:7324-:d:1135197
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-3.
    2. Ayinde, Kayode & Lukman, Adewale F. & Rauf, Rauf I. & Alabi, Olusegun O. & Okon, Charles E. & Ayinde, Opeyemi E., 2020. "Modeling Nigerian Covid-19 cases: A comparative analysis of models and estimators," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Henry Inegbedion & Eseosa Obadiaru & Olamide Adeyemi, 2020. "Stock Prices Reaction to Oil Price Fluctuations: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 142-149.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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