IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i7p5794-d1108360.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of the Future Changes in the Socio-Economic Vulnerability of China’s Coastal Areas

Author

Listed:
  • Cuihua Li

    (Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China)

  • Rongshuo Cai

    (Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China)

  • Xiuhua Yan

    (Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China)

Abstract

China’s coastal areas are under serious threat of continued sea-level rise, and sustainable coastal development is closely linked to changes in socio-economic vulnerability. To this end, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework of shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), this study constructed a system of indicators to assess the socio-economic vulnerability of China’s coastal areas in 2030, 2050, and 2100 under low, medium, and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively). The results showed the following: (1) the vulnerability of China’s coastal provinces, cities, and counties shows an upward trend (ranked SSP5-8.5 > SSP2-4.5 > SSP1-2.6), which is mainly attributed to a continued increase in the exposure of socio-economic systems to sea-level rise and differences in the age structure of the population within the study regions; and (2) areas with higher vulnerability are concentrated in economically developed coastal areas, such as the Bohai Bay Rim and the Yangtze River Delta, Jiangsu, and Pearl River Delta regions, owing to their high proportions of low-lying land, long coastlines, and dense residential areas associated with economic development. Based on these results, climate-resilient solutions are needed to improve socio-economic adaptations for ongoing climate change in China’s coastal areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuihua Li & Rongshuo Cai & Xiuhua Yan, 2023. "Assessment of the Future Changes in the Socio-Economic Vulnerability of China’s Coastal Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:7:p:5794-:d:1108360
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/7/5794/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/7/5794/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
    2. Sigridur Bjarnadottir & Yue Li & Mark Stewart, 2011. "Social vulnerability index for coastal communities at risk to hurricane hazard and a changing climate," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(2), pages 1055-1075, November.
    3. Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini & Turk-Boyer, Peggy & Moreno-Baez, Marcia, 2014. "Social indicators of vulnerability for fishing communities in the Northern Gulf of California, Mexico: Implications for climate change," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-193.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cuong Viet Nguyen & Ralph Horne & John Fien & France Cheong, 2017. "Assessment of social vulnerability to climate change at the local scale: development and application of a Social Vulnerability Index," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 355-370, August.
    2. Mohsen Alizadeh & Esmaeil Alizadeh & Sara Asadollahpour Kotenaee & Himan Shahabi & Amin Beiranvand Pour & Mahdi Panahi & Baharin Bin Ahmad & Lee Saro, 2018. "Social Vulnerability Assessment Using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model for Earthquake Hazard in Tabriz City, Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, September.
    3. Ibolya Török, 2018. "Qualitative Assessment of Social Vulnerability to Flood Hazards in Romania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-20, October.
    4. Esfandiar Zebardast, 2013. "Constructing a social vulnerability index to earthquake hazards using a hybrid factor analysis and analytic network process (F’ANP) model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1331-1359, February.
    5. Yi Ge & Wen Dou & Xiaotao Wang & Yi Chen & Ziyuan Zhang, 2021. "Identifying urban–rural differences in social vulnerability to natural hazards: a case study of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(3), pages 2629-2651, September.
    6. Stephanie Chang & Jackie Yip & Shona Zijll de Jong & Rebecca Chaster & Ashley Lowcock, 2015. "Using vulnerability indicators to develop resilience networks: a similarity approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1827-1841, September.
    7. Eric Tate & Aaron Strong & Travis Kraus & Haoyi Xiong, 2016. "Flood recovery and property acquisition in Cedar Rapids, Iowa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 2055-2079, February.
    8. J. Connor Darlington & Niko Yiannakoulias & Amin Elshorbagy, 2022. "Changes in social vulnerability to flooding: a quasi-experimental analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2487-2509, April.
    9. Tugkan Tanir & Andre de Souza de Lima & Gustavo A. Coelho & Sukru Uzun & Felicio Cassalho & Celso M. Ferreira, 2021. "Assessing the spatiotemporal socioeconomic flood vulnerability of agricultural communities in the Potomac River Watershed," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 225-251, August.
    10. Sarah Stafford & Jeremy Abramowitz, 2017. "An analysis of methods for identifying social vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise: a case study of Hampton Roads, Virginia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 1089-1117, January.
    11. Eric Tate & Aaron Strong & Travis Kraus & Haoyi Xiong, 2016. "Flood recovery and property acquisition in Cedar Rapids, Iowa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 2055-2079, February.
    12. Yi Peng, 2015. "Regional earthquake vulnerability assessment using a combination of MCDM methods," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 95-110, November.
    13. Meryl Jagarnath & Tirusha Thambiran & Michael Gebreslasie, 2020. "Heat stress risk and vulnerability under climate change in Durban metropolitan, South Africa—identifying urban planning priorities for adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 807-829, November.
    14. Ashley C. Freeman & Walker S. Ashley, 2017. "Changes in the US hurricane disaster landscape: the relationship between risk and exposure," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 659-682, September.
    15. Yongdeng Lei & Jing’ai Wang & Yaojie Yue & Hongjian Zhou & Weixia Yin, 2014. "Rethinking the relationships of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation from a disaster risk perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 609-627, January.
    16. Pujun Liang & Wei Xu & Yunjia Ma & Xiujuan Zhao & Lianjie Qin, 2017. "Increase of Elderly Population in the Rainstorm Hazard Areas of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, August.
    17. Kamaldeen Mohammed & Evans Batung & Moses Kansanga & Hanson Nyantakyi-Frimpong & Isaac Luginaah, 2021. "Livelihood diversification strategies and resilience to climate change in semi-arid northern Ghana," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-23, February.
    18. R. Bryson Touchstone & Kathleen Sherman-Morris, 2016. "Vulnerability to prolonged cold: a case study of the Zeravshan Valley of Tajikistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 1279-1300, September.
    19. Eric Tate, 2012. "Social vulnerability indices: a comparative assessment using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 325-347, September.
    20. Yi Gu & Jinyu Sun & Jianming Cai & Yanwen Xie & Jiahao Guo, 2024. "Urban Planning Perspective on Food Resilience Assessment and Practice in the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-27, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:7:p:5794-:d:1108360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.