Land-Use Assessment and Trend Simulation from a Resilient Urban Perspective: A Case Study of Changsha City

As the challenges of globalization and climate change intensify, the importance of urban resilience in city planning is becoming increasingly evident. To adapt to this trend, innovations and improvements are essential in traditional urban land-use patterns to better fulfill the requirements of resilient urban development. In this context, this study constructs an urban resilience evaluation index system from four perspectives: social resilience, engineering resilience, ecological resilience, and security resilience to evaluate the urban resilience of Changsha City. A thorough assessment of the resilience mechanisms in Changsha’s urban layout was conducted, employing the SD-FLUS model. A resilient urban scenario is also established to restrict the conversion of high-resilience land into other land types and to predict urban land-use structures under a resilience-oriented directive. The findings indicate that areas with high ecological and safety resilience in Changsha are primarily located in the western Weishan mountain system, along with eastern mountain systems like Jiuling, Lianyun, and Mufu, forming the “green veins”. The central areas are characterized by “blue veins”, mainly represented by rivers such as the Xiangjiang, Weishui, Longwanggang, Jinjiang, Liuyang, and Laodao. Within the central urban area, high-resilience regions are primarily distributed along a framework consisting of “one ring (the city’s three-ring line), two mains (Xiangjiang and Liuyang rivers), one heart (urban green core), and six wedges”, specifying various green corridors. Under the resilience-oriented scenario, the model predicts that by 2025, the total built-up area in Changsha will be 1416.79 km². Areas with high social and engineering resilience are mainly concentrated in the central urban areas of Changsha, as well as Ningxiang and Liuyang, aligning closely with the objectives of Changsha’s latest round of national spatial planning. The built-up area layout should complement Changsha’s topography and water systems, expanding in a wedge-like manner. Overall, Changsha’s planning has successfully integrated social, engineering, ecological, and safety resilience, enhancing its adaptability and long-term sustainability. This research proposes a land-use simulation method guided by the concept of urban resilience, providing valuable insights for resilience-oriented city planning in Changsha and other cities facing similar challenges.