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Driving Force Exploration for Flash Flood Based on Mann–Kendall Test and Geographical Detector: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China

Author

Listed:
  • Lingling Bin

    (School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China)

  • Weichao Yang

    (Tianjin Key Laboratory of Soft Soil Characteristics & Engineering Environment, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China)

  • Kui Xu

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China)

Abstract

Flash floods are among the deadliest hazards in China and have led to substantial casualties and losses, especially on Hainan Island. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the main driving force behind them. Nevertheless, research on the driving force of flash floods is limited here. This study explores the driving force of flash floods on Hainan Island from 14 factors involving three categories: natural, social, and rainfall factors. Two quantitative methods, like the Mann–Kendall test and the geographical detector method, are applied. The Mann–Kendall test is usually used for time series trend analysis and is introduced to divide the flash flood periods into D95 (years from 1980 to 1995) and D14 (years from 1996 to 2014) through the results of reported flash flood trend analysis. The geographical detector is applied to analyze the driving force of flash floods. There are several key findings from this study that help better understand the driving force about flash floods. Firstly, the results show that the main driving forces of flash floods are natural factors like Elevation and Soil in both periods, and they are on the rise. Secondly, the influence of short-term heavy rainfall on flash floods is becoming more and more serious. Thirdly, even though the driving forces from social factors to flash floods are small, the impact of population density on that is significantly increasing.

Suggested Citation

  • Lingling Bin & Weichao Yang & Kui Xu, 2023. "Driving Force Exploration for Flash Flood Based on Mann–Kendall Test and Geographical Detector: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:16:p:12517-:d:1219449
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yesen Liu & Ximin Yuan & Liang Guo & Yaohuan Huang & Xiaolei Zhang, 2017. "Driving Force Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Flash Floods in Sichuan Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Shakeel Mahmood & Amin-ul-Haq Khan & Shaker Mahmood Mayo, 2016. "Exploring underlying causes and assessing damages of 2010 flash flood in the upper zone of Panjkora River," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 1213-1227, September.
    3. Paolo Billi & Yonas Alemu & Rossano Ciampalini, 2015. "Increased frequency of flash floods in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia: Change in rainfall intensity or human impact?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1373-1394, March.
    4. A’kif Al-Fugara & Ali Nouh Mabdeh & Saad Alayyash & Awni Khasawneh, 2023. "Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Flash Flood and Embankment Dam Break Scenario: Hazard Mapping of Extreme Storm Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-28, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Quancheng Zhou & Hanze Tan & Zezhong Zhang & Weijie Zhang & Fei Wang & Jihong Qu & Yingjie Wu & Wenjun Wang & Yong Liu & Dequan Zhang & Yongsheng Wang & Kai Feng, 2024. "Investigation of the Coupling and Coordination Relationship of Water–Energy–Food–Ecology and the Driving Mechanism in Dalad Banner," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-23, June.

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