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Aging in Place or Moving to Higher Ground: Older Adults’ Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Honolulu, Hawaii

Author

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  • Suwan Shen

    (Department of Urban and Regional and Planning, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Saunders Hall 107, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA)

  • Karl Kim

    (Department of Urban and Regional and Planning, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Saunders Hall 107, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA)

  • Dingyi Liu

    (Department of Urban and Regional and Planning, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Saunders Hall 107, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA)

Abstract

Coastal communities face escalating risks from rising sea levels and the increasing growth of vulnerable, aging populations in high-risk zones. These threats are expected to intensify as population growth and aging trends continue. In response to these challenges, this study represents a novel investigation into the synergistic impacts of demographic shifts and climate change in shaping the vulnerability of coastal communities, particularly focusing on elderly populations. This study’s primary objectives are to assess the potential impacts of these threats on vulnerable older adults and to explore effective adaptation strategies. To achieve these objectives, we used census tract data from Hawaii and the Hamilton–Perry cohort-component method to project the elderly population trends in each census tract for Honolulu in 2050. The vulnerabilities of older adults were estimated under different sea level rise level conditions and mapped according to three planning scenarios: (1) maintaining the status quo; (2) relocating or redeveloping vulnerable elderly residents to safer, low-density neighborhoods; (3) relocating or redeveloping vulnerable elderly residents to secure, high-density areas with amenities for older adults. We further evaluated transportation accessibility to emergency services in these scenarios. The findings reveal that with a projected sea level rise of 1.1 feet, the number of elderly individuals without timely access (within 8 min) to emergency and healthcare services would double by 2050. This is primarily attributed to reduced transportation access and increased aging in high-risk areas. Compared to the status quo, both relocation (or redevelopment) strategies significantly improve the vulnerable elderly population’s access to emergency and healthcare services, even without enhancements in transportation and infrastructure. Given that many developments and aging trends are yet to fully unfold, we propose that existing adaptation strategies should prioritize land use development, along with housing and transportation solutions that align with development scenarios 2 and 3, to support age-friendly activities and lifestyles. By directing population growth towards less vulnerable zones in the coming decades, we can achieve protective effects equivalent to those of future relocation efforts, but without incurring substantial protection or relocation costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Suwan Shen & Karl Kim & Dingyi Liu, 2023. "Aging in Place or Moving to Higher Ground: Older Adults’ Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Honolulu, Hawaii," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:12:p:9535-:d:1170672
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anamaria Bukvic & Julia Gohlke & Aishwarya Borate & Jessica Suggs, 2018. "Aging in Flood-Prone Coastal Areas: Discerning the Health and Well-Being Risk for Older Residents," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Fang, Mei Lan & Woolrych, Ryan & Sixsmith, Judith & Canham, Sarah & Battersby, Lupin & Sixsmith, Andrew, 2016. "Place-making with older persons: Establishing sense-of-place through participatory community mapping workshops," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 223-229.
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    4. David Swanson & Alan Schlottmann & Bob Schmidt, 2010. "Forecasting the Population of Census Tracts by Age and Sex: An Example of the Hamilton–Perry Method in Action," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 29(1), pages 47-63, February.
    5. Chongming Wang & Brent Yarnal, 2012. "The vulnerability of the elderly to hurricane hazards in Sarasota, Florida," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 349-373, September.
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