IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2022i1p12-d1008600.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Analysis of Local Government Financial Statement Audit Outcomes in a Developing Economy Using Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Keletso Mabelane

    (School of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa)

  • Wilson Tsakane Mongwe

    (School of Electrical Engineering, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa)

  • Rendani Mbuvha

    (School of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa)

  • Tshilidzi Marwala

    (School of Electrical Engineering, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa)

Abstract

Good financial management provides economic stability and sustainability to an organization. It enables an organisation to make good use of its resources and plan effectively. South Africa’s public financial management has deteriorated over time, with only 16% of municipalities receiving a clean audit in the 2020-21 financial period as reported by the Auditor General of South Africa. This work aims to find an appropriate model for analysing and predicting audit outcomes for South African municipalities. The data used in the study include 1560 observations of which 55% were unqualified audit opinions. The features used are 13 financial ratios obtained from financial statements from years 2012 to 2018. Feature selection is performed using random forest, correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis. The performances of three machine learning algorithms are compared; decision tree, artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression models. The findings indicate that ANN is the appropriate model for predicting audit opinions in South African municipalities with overall average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.6918 and overall average area under the Precision–Recall curve of 0.7074 across all feature selection methods. In addition, debt to operating ratio, current ratio and net operating surplus margin are found to be the common three important financial ratios across the various feature selection techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Keletso Mabelane & Wilson Tsakane Mongwe & Rendani Mbuvha & Tshilidzi Marwala, 2022. "An Analysis of Local Government Financial Statement Audit Outcomes in a Developing Economy Using Machine Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2022:i:1:p:12-:d:1008600
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/1/12/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/1/12/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:eme:maj000:02686900810890625 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eme:maj000:02686900410509802 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chyan-Long Jan, 2021. "Detection of Financial Statement Fraud Using Deep Learning for Sustainable Development of Capital Markets under Information Asymmetry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, September.
    4. Fen-May Liou, 2008. "Fraudulent financial reporting detection and business failure prediction models: a comparison," Managerial Auditing Journal, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 23(7), pages 650-662, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victor Munteanu & Lavinia Copcinschi & Carmen Luschi & Anda Laceanu, 2017. "Internal Audit – Determinant Factor In Preventing And Detecting Fraud Related Activity To Public Entities Financial Accounting," Knowledge Horizons - Economics, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 9(1), pages 55-63, March.
    2. Stephen J. Smulowitz & Didier Cossin & Alfredo De Massis & Hongze (Abraham) Lu, 2023. "Wrongdoing in Publicly Listed Family- and Nonfamily-Owned Firms: A Behavioral Perspective," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 47(4), pages 1233-1264, July.
    3. Harlan L. Etheridge & Kathy H. Y. Hsu, 2015. "Minimizing the Costs of Using Models to Assess the Financial Health of Banks," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 5(11), pages 9-18, November.
    4. Egbunike, Patrick Amaechi & Ezeabasili, Vincent Nnanyereugo, 2013. "Application of Computed Financial Ratios in Fraud Detection Modelling: A Study of Selected Banks in Nigeria," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1405-1418, November.
    5. Elias Zavitsanos & Dimitris Mavroeidis & Konstantinos Bougiatiotis & Eirini Spyropoulou & Lefteris Loukas & Georgios Paliouras, 2023. "Financial misstatement detection: a realistic evaluation," Papers 2305.17457, arXiv.org.
    6. Shi Qiu & Yuansheng Luo & Hongwei Guo, 2021. "Multisource evidence theory‐based fraud risk assessment of China's listed companies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1524-1539, December.
    7. Charalampos Bratsas & Evangelos Chondrokostas & Kleanthis Koupidis & Ioannis Antoniou, 2021. "The Use of National Strategic Reference Framework Data in Knowledge Graphs and Data Mining to Identify Red Flags," Data, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, January.
    8. Shirley Wong & Sitalakshmi Venkatraman, 2015. "Financial Accounting Fraud Detection Using Business Intelligence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(11), pages 1187-1207, November.
    9. Amani, Farzaneh A. & Fadlalla, Adam M., 2017. "Data mining applications in accounting: A review of the literature and organizing framework," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 32-58.
    10. Der-Jang Chi & Chien-Chou Chu, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence in Corporate Sustainability: Using LSTM and GRU for Going Concern Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-18, October.
    11. Harlan L. Etheridge & Kathy H. Y. Hsu, 2015. "Minimizing the Costs of Using Models to Assess the Financial Health of Banks," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(11), pages 9-18, November.
    12. Gullkvist, Benita & Jokipii, Annukka, 2013. "Perceived importance of red flags across fraud types," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 44-61.
    13. Diego Valentinetti & Michele A. Reaa, 2023. "Intelligenza artificiale e accounting: le possibili relazioni," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2023(2), pages 93-116.
    14. Duarte Trigueiros, 2019. "Improving the effectiveness of predictors in accounting-based models," Journal of Applied Accounting Research, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 20(2), pages 207-226, June.
    15. Luca Ianni & Gianluca Marullo & Stefania Migliori & Francesco De Luca, 2021. "I modelli predittivi della crisi e dell?insolvenza aziendale. Una systematic review," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2021(2), pages 127-146.
    16. Der-Jang Chi & Zong-De Shen, 2022. "Using Hybrid Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technologies for Sustainability in Going-Concern Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, February.
    17. Steven Liew Woon Choy & Jayaraman Munusamy & Shankar Chelliah & Ally Mandari, 2011. "Effects of Financial Distress Condition on the Company Performance: A Malaysian Perspective," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 85-99, August.
    18. Mary Jane Lenard & Karin A. Petruska & Pervaiz Alam & Bing Yu, 2012. "Indicators of audit fees and fraud classification: impact of SOX," Managerial Auditing Journal, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 27(5), pages 500-525, May.
    19. Roshayani Arshad & Sharinah Mohamed Iqbal & Normah Omar, 2015. "Prediction of Business Failure and Fraudulent Financial Reporting: Evidence from Malaysia," Indian Journal of Corporate Governance, , vol. 8(1), pages 34-53, June.
    20. Abdul Ghafoor & Rozaimah Zainudin & Nurul Shahnaz Mahdzan, 2019. "Factors Eliciting Corporate Fraud in Emerging Markets: Case of Firms Subject to Enforcement Actions in Malaysia," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 587-608, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2022:i:1:p:12-:d:1008600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.