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Research on the Potential of Forestry’s Carbon-Neutral Contribution in China from 2021 to 2060

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng Chen

    (School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Buddhi Dayananda

    (School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia)

  • Brendan Fu

    (School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia)

  • Ziwen Li

    (Industrial Development Planning Institute, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100013, China)

  • Ziyu Jia

    (China Architecture Design and Research Group, China National Engineering Research Center for Human Settlement, Beijing 100120, China)

  • Yue Hu

    (School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Jiaxi Cao

    (School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Ying Liu

    (School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Lumeng Xie

    (School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Ye Chen

    (Asia Pacific School of Business Administration, Jilin University of Finance and Economics, Changchun 130117, China)

  • Shuhong Wu

    (School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

Forest ecosystems play a crucial role in mitigating climate change. To assess and quantify the specific emissions reduction benefits of forest carbon sequestration, this study used a combination of backpropagation neural networks, biomass conversion factor method, and logistic models to predict the carbon-neutral contribution from existing forests, planned afforestation, and forest tending activities in China from 2021 to 2060. The results showed that (1) the emissions reduction contribution of forestry pathways in China was 7.91% (8588.61 MtCO 2 ) at the carbon peak stage and 8.71% (24,932.73 MtCO 2 ) at the carbon-neutral stage; (2) the southwest was the main contributing region, while the east and north lagged; (3) afforestation activities made the largest emission reduction contribution during the forecast period, while the contribution of existing forests continued to decline; and (4) carbon sequestration contribution by different forest origins was comparable during the carbon peak, while the contribution of plantation forests was expected to surpass that of natural forests during the carbon-neutral period. In order to maximize the benefits of the carbon-neutral pathway of forestry, it is necessary to enhance the policy frameworks related to forestry activities, forestry financial investment systems, and sustainable forest management systems to maximize the potential of this sector. Furthermore, more focus should be placed on reduction sectors to ensure the timely achievement of carbon goals and boost sustainable development in the context of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Chen & Buddhi Dayananda & Brendan Fu & Ziwen Li & Ziyu Jia & Yue Hu & Jiaxi Cao & Ying Liu & Lumeng Xie & Ye Chen & Shuhong Wu, 2022. "Research on the Potential of Forestry’s Carbon-Neutral Contribution in China from 2021 to 2060," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:9:p:5444-:d:807008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Irene Monasterolo & Stefano Battiston & Anthony C. Janetos & Zoey Zheng, 2017. "Vulnerable yet relevant: the two dimensions of climate-related financial disclosure," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 495-507, December.
    2. Jialing Yu & Jian Wu, 2018. "The Sustainability of Agricultural Development in China: The Agriculture–Environment Nexus," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Theodore A. Endreny, 2018. "Strategically growing the urban forest will improve our world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-3, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghazala Aziz & Zouheir Mighri, 2022. "Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Forestry in China: A Spatial Panel Data Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-40, October.

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