A Hawaiian Tropical Dry Forest Regenerates: Natural Regeneration of Endangered Species under Biocultural Restoration

Tropical dry forests (TDFs) are among the most at-risk ecosystems globally. In Hawai‘i, more than 45% of TDF species are threatened or endangered. Despite decades of active TDF restoration, there remains limited information on the potential for long-term success, since there are few studies of natural regeneration. We assess natural regeneration of endangered plants at Ka‘ūpūlehu dryland forest, a Hawaiian biocultural restoration initiative. Drawing on 6 annual censuses we (1) assess rates and patterns of natural regeneration across species and as a function of rainfall and (2) identify bottlenecks. Our surveys document natural recruits of 11 of the 12 endangered species first outplanted 15–20 years ago. Higher annual rainfall increased the number of new recruits per year and growth, but decreased survival of larger recruits. The total number of natural recruits increased three-fold over the study period and varied across species. For nearly half of the species, we documented a second generation of recruits. Successes appear to be a function of time, including a changing microclimate and adaptive management practices. Remaining bottlenecks include lack of seed dispersal, and seed predation and herbivory by introduced species. The success at Ka‘ūpūlehu highlights the potential for TDF restoration and the value of a biocultural approach.