IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i3p1115-d728183.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential Range Shift of Snow Leopard in Future Climate Change Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Xinhai Li

    (Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Liming Ma

    (Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    School of Life Sciences, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, China)

  • Dazhi Hu

    (Qilianshan National Park Administration Bureau Zhangye Branch, Zhangye 734000, China)

  • Duifang Ma

    (Qilianshan National Park Administration Bureau Zhangye Branch, Zhangye 734000, China)

  • Renqiang Li

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Yuehua Sun

    (Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Erhu Gao

    (Academy of Inventory and Planning, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100714, China)

Abstract

The snow leopard ( Panthera uncia ) lives in alpine ecosystems in Central Asia, where it could face intensive climate change and is thus a major conservation concern. We compiled a dataset of 406 GPS-located occurrences based on field surveys, literature, and the GBIF database. We used Random Forest to build different species distribution models with a maximum of 27 explanatory variables, including climatic, topographical, and human impact variables, to predict potential distribution for the snow leopard and make climate change projections. We estimated the potential range shifts of the snow leopard under two global climate models for different representative concentration pathways for 2050 and 2070. We found the distribution center of the snow leopard may move northwest by about 200 km and may move upward in elevation by about 100 m by 2070. Unlike previous studies on the range shifts of the snow leopard, we highlighted that upward rather than northward range shifts are the main pathways for the snow leopard in the changing climate, since the landform of their habitat allows an upward shift, whereas mountains and valleys would block northward movement. Conservation of the snow leopard should therefore prioritize protecting its current habitat over making movement corridors.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinhai Li & Liming Ma & Dazhi Hu & Duifang Ma & Renqiang Li & Yuehua Sun & Erhu Gao, 2022. "Potential Range Shift of Snow Leopard in Future Climate Change Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-14, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1115-:d:728183
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1115/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1115/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Linas Balčiauskas, 2022. "Mammal Status: Diversity, Abundance and Dynamics: An Editorial," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-3, April.
    2. Xinhai Li & Ning Li & Baidu Li & Yuehua Sun & Erhu Gao, 2022. "AbundanceR: A Novel Method for Estimating Wildlife Abundance Based on Distance Sampling and Species Distribution Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-13, April.
    3. Xiang Feng & Qian Peng & Yunnan Chen & Weiyue Li, 2022. "A Case Study of the Snow Leopard in Sanjiangyuan National Park Boundaries regarding Park Boundary Divergence," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-15, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1115-:d:728183. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.