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Predicting Detached Housing Vacancy: A Multilevel Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jaekyung Lee

    (Department of Urban Design and Planning, Hongik University, Seoul 04066, Korea)

  • Galen Newman

    (Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA)

  • Changyeon Lee

    (Department of Urban Engineering, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju 54896, Korea)

Abstract

Urban shrinkage is a critical issue in local small- and medium-sized cities in Korea. While there have been several studies to analyze the causes and consequences of vacancy increases, most have only focused on socioeconomic associations at larger scale and failed to consider individual housing level characteristics, primarily due to a lack of appropriate data. Based on data including 52,400 individual parcels, this study analyzes the primary contributors to vacant properties and their spatial distribution through a multilevel model design based on data for each parcel. Then, we identify areas at high risk of vacancy in the future to provide evidence to establish policies for improving the local environment. Results indicate that construction year, building structure, and road access conditions have a significant effect on vacant properties at the individual parcel level, and the presence of schools and hypermarket within 500 m are found to decrease vacant properties. Further, prediction outcomes show that the aged city center and areas with strict regulations on land use are expected to have a higher vacancy rate. These findings are used to provide a set of data-based revitalization strategies through the development of a vacancy prediction model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaekyung Lee & Galen Newman & Changyeon Lee, 2022. "Predicting Detached Housing Vacancy: A Multilevel Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:922-:d:724732
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hyejeong Yoo & Youngsang Kwon, 2019. "Different Factors Affecting Vacant Housing According to Regional Characteristics in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-14, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Seongbeom Park & Jaekyung Lee & Yunmi Park, 2022. "Analysis of Residential Satisfaction Changes by the Land Bank Program Using Text Mining," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Kichan Kim & Chang Kil Lee & Hyun Woo Kim, 2022. "Understanding the Accessibility of Urban Parks and Connectivity of Green Spaces in Single-Person Household Distribution: Case Study of Incheon, South Korea," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, August.
    3. Raisa Țăruș & Ștefan Dezsi & Andreea M. Crăciun & Florin Pop & Claudia E. Tudorache, 2022. "Urban Shrinking Cities in Romania and The Netherlands—A Possible Policy Framing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
    4. Shlomit Flint Ashery & Carl Steinitz, 2022. "Issue-Based Complexity: Digitally Supported Negotiation in Geodesign Linking Planning and Implementation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-19, July.

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