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A Modeling and Analysis Framework for Integrated Energy Systems Exposed to Climate Change-Induced NaTech Accidental Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Di Maio

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milan, Italy)

  • Pietro Tonicello

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milan, Italy)

  • Enrico Zio

    (Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milan, Italy
    Centre de Recherche sur les Risques et les Crises (CRC), MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, 75272 Valbonne, France)

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel framework for the analysis of integrated energy systems (IESs) exposed to both stochastic failures and “shock” climate-induced failures, such as those characterizing NaTech accidental scenarios. With such a framework, standard centralized systems (CS), IES with distributed generation (IES-DG) and IES with bidirectional energy conversion (IES+P2G) enabled by power-to-gas (P2G) facilities can be analyzed. The framework embeds the model of each single production plant in an integrated power-flow model and then couples it with a stochastic failures model and a climate-induced failure model, which simulates the occurrence of extreme weather events (e.g., flooding) driven by climate change. To illustrate how to operationalize the analysis in practice, a case study of a realistic IES has been considered that comprises two combined cycle gas turbine plants (CCGT), a nuclear power plant (NPP), two wind farms (WF), a solar photovoltaicS (PV) field and a power-to-gas station (P2G). Results suggest that the IESs are resilient to climate-induced failures.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Di Maio & Pietro Tonicello & Enrico Zio, 2022. "A Modeling and Analysis Framework for Integrated Energy Systems Exposed to Climate Change-Induced NaTech Accidental Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:786-:d:722268
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonas Savelsberg & Moritz Schillinger & Ingmar Schlecht & Hannes Weigt, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Bijon Kumer Mitra & Devesh Sharma & Xin Zhou & Rajarshi Dasgupta, 2021. "Assessment of the Impacts of Spatial Water Resource Variability on Energy Planning in the Ganges River Basin under Climate Change Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-15, June.
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