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A Review of Research and Practice on the Theory and Technology of Reservoir Dam Risk Assessment

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  • Shichen Zhang

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Wenang Hou

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Jiangshan Yin

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Zifeng Lin

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract

A current trend is to implement dam risk management. Dam risk analysis is the premise of dam risk management. Methods such as PRA, FMEA/FMECA, FTA, ETA, and group dam risk analysis have been proposed in studies at home and abroad. In practice, it is found that dam breaks or accidents occur even though the dam risk calculated by the existing methods meets the acceptable risk standard, and that many occurred accidents are at variance with dam risk analysis. This indicates that the existing methods have systematic defects, and the dam risk calculated based on such methods is only a part of the actual risk. This paper reviews the dam risk analysis theory and technical research and practice, discusses and analyzes the applicability and existing defects of the dam risk analysis theory, and proposes the future development direction of the dam risk analysis theory. It is concluded that the current dam risk assessment theories are tantamount to the traditional safety factor method coupled with probability analysis. The correlation among influencing factors of dam system risk, as well as the uncertainties of the said factors are not fully considered. Difficulties and opportunities coexist in China to link the existing dam safety standard system with the dam risk management system. The next step is to use system theory to carry out theoretical research on dam operation risk assessment, strengthen the connection between dam risk theory and management status, and formulate risk prevention regulations and technical standards.

Suggested Citation

  • Shichen Zhang & Wenang Hou & Jiangshan Yin & Zifeng Lin, 2022. "A Review of Research and Practice on the Theory and Technology of Reservoir Dam Risk Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:22:p:14984-:d:971214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aslett, Louis J.M. & Nagapetyan, Tigran & Vollmer, Sebastian J., 2017. "Multilevel Monte Carlo for Reliability Theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 188-196.
    2. Yantao Zhu & Xinqiang Niu & Jimin Wang & Chongshi Gu & Qiang Sun & Bo Li & Lixian Huang, 2020. "A Risk Assessment Model for Dam Combining the Probabilistic and the Nonprobabilistic Methods," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-12, April.
    3. Memduh Karalar & Murat Cavuslu, 2022. "Determination of 3D near fault seismic behaviour of Oroville earth fill dam using burger material model and free field-quiet boundary conditions," Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 55-77, December.
    4. Jonathan Raikes & Timothy F. Smith & Claudia Baldwin & Daniel Henstra, 2022. "Disaster risk reduction and climate policy implementation challenges in Canada and Australia," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 534-548, April.
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