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Potential Flood Risk in the City of Guasave, Sinaloa, the Effects of Population Growth, and Modifications to the Topographic Relief

Author

Listed:
  • Héctor José Peinado Guevara

    (Escuela de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Guasave 81100, Mexico)

  • Mauro Espinoza Ortiz

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, CIIDIR Unidad Sinaloa, Programa de Doctorado en Red en Ciencias en Conservación del Patrimonio Paisajístico, Guasave 81100, Mexico)

  • Víctor Manuel Peinado Guevara

    (Escuela de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Guasave 81100, Mexico)

  • Jaime Herrera Barrientos

    (Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, Baja California (CICESE), Ensenada 22860, Mexico)

  • Jesús Alberto Peinado Guevara

    (Preparatoria Guasave Nocturna, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Guasave 81100, Mexico)

  • Omar Delgado Rodríguez

    (División de Geociencias Aplicadas, Instituto Potosino de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica (IPICyT), San Luis Potosí 78216, Mexico)

  • Manuel de Jesús Pellegrini Cervantes

    (Facultad de Ingeniería Mochis, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Los Mochis, Ahome 81256, Mexico)

  • Moisés Sánchez Morales

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, CIIDIR Unidad Sinaloa, Guasave 81100, Mexico)

Abstract

The coastal city of Guasave, Sinaloa, located on the Mexican Pacific coast, is subject to extreme precipitation events, which have caused flooding with damage to the city’s infrastructure. The factors that influence flooding are vegetation, geology, degree of soil saturation, drainage characteristics of the watershed, and the shape of the topographic relief. Of the above factors, the topographic relief, which is the subject of the study, has been partially modified in some areas by infrastructure works (from 20.2 m to 17.6 m), and the population of the urban area has grown by 51.8% in 17 years (2004–2021); therefore, the objective is to evaluate the potential flood risk due to changes in this factor and the growth of the urban area. When using this method, the potential flood risk was determined considering four extreme events, 1982, 1990, 1998, and 2019. It was found that the potential risk increases for the whole city, being more intense in sector III, which, before the modification of the topographic relief, was the area with the lowest risk of flooding. In an extreme event such as Hurricane Paul in 1982, practically the entire city would be flooded.

Suggested Citation

  • Héctor José Peinado Guevara & Mauro Espinoza Ortiz & Víctor Manuel Peinado Guevara & Jaime Herrera Barrientos & Jesús Alberto Peinado Guevara & Omar Delgado Rodríguez & Manuel de Jesús Pellegrini Cerv, 2022. "Potential Flood Risk in the City of Guasave, Sinaloa, the Effects of Population Growth, and Modifications to the Topographic Relief," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:11:p:6560-:d:825668
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Rifat, Shaikh Abdullah Al & Liu, Weibo, 2022. "Predicting future urban growth scenarios and potential urban flood exposure using Artificial Neural Network-Markov Chain model in Miami Metropolitan Area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
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